The last election is barely over, but the political world in Arizona is abuzz this morning with talk of the next one, and potential challengers to Arizona’s Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.
Politico reported this week that Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes had been approached by unnamed Democrats asking him about a 2026 primary challenge to Hobbs. Now, he’s confirming it’s true.
Stacey Barchenger, state politics reporter at the Arizona Republic, has the story and joined The Show to discuss.
Full conversation
STACEY BARCHENGER: Hi, good morning, Lauren.
GILGER: Thanks for coming on. So what did Fontes say to you about these claims that he is considering potentially a gubernatorial run?
BARCHENGER: Yeah, so first and foremost, he confirmed that that is true, but also kind of downplayed the reporting in that, you know, kind of the takeaway from my conversation with him is he is considering every option but right now looking at a re-election bid for secretary of state.
GILGER: Ok, so noncommittal but confirming the story. Tell us, Stacey, a little bit about the political context here. Like Politico had reported that these unnamed Democrats who approached Fontes were concerned that Hobbs was too weak politically to win a second term.
BARCHENGER: Yeah, and I think that's certainly a sentiment that exists within some members of the Democratic Party, not only from the sort of major election losses earlier this month, you know, Democrats really thought they had the wind at their back in terms of flipping the Legislature, you know, maybe Harris would win Arizona, and that just clearly did not play out.
So you have that on the one hand, but then you also have, you know, the last two years. Gov. Hobbs has been working with a Republican-majority Legislature and maybe working with is not exactly the right phrasing there, but she has been vetoing, you know, over 200 bills, trying to score policy accomplishments, but that's just really hard in that dynamic, and I don't, there, there are some Democrats who think she doesn't have a lot to show for that and that that makes her, you know, maybe somebody they need to find another candidate in 2026.
I will say though it, as far as I understand it, some of these conversations are happening at the grassroots level. The leadership of the Democratic Party came out yesterday and said, you know, they've got Hobbs' back. They think she's an essential backstop to, you know, both the Trump administration and Republican policies over the next four years.
GILGER: Yeah, Hobbs is also facing some backlash, it seems from some Democrats on the left who, who say she's already backing down to Trump on, on issues like immigration. She went to the border this week.
BARCHENGER: Yeah, absolutely. And again, that's a sentiment that we saw, you know, I remember her first year in office, you saw some more progressive Democrats in the Legislature who thought the first budget was a Gov. [Doug] Ducey budget, a Republican budget.
So I think Gov. Hobbs is trying to walk this line of being a Democrat in a swing border state with a Republican registration advantage and what that looks like.
GILGER: Right, right, and we'll talk more about that in just a sec, but talk a little bit first, Stacey, about who might, who else might challenge Hobbs in this next election. There's also been talk from the Democratic side of Attorney General Kris Mayes challenging her.
BARCHENGER: Yeah, absolutely, and it's been sort of interesting to follow, you know, these rumors and speculation have been out there for quite some time about either Fontes or Mayes putting up a challenge.
I reached out to Attorney General Mayes yesterday. She says as of right now she's planning on running for reelection. She really likes her job as attorney general, and so I think it's pretty unlikely as of today, more than two years out, that you would see, sort of a challenge to Hobbs and you know, the other thing we should mention is it's just really hard to unseat an incumbent who has already begun fundraising, you know. Gov. Hobbs has $3 million in the bank, which is a significant sum.
And so even though there may be this perception that she is a little bit weak, it's another sort of political challenge to actually unseat her in a primary.
GILGER: Right, but there are also potential challengers from the Republican side, right?
BARCHENGER: Oh yeah, absolutely, and that that field has not totally taken shape. You know, of course Karrin Taylor Robson, the businesswoman who ran for governor back in 2022, I think she has said she's keeping her options open. I expect she will get in the race.
You have Treasurer Kimberly Yee, who also ran in 2022. I reached out to her, and she said that she thinks Arizonans need a break from politics for a while, but you know, then also said she's working against radical left policies which might be an indicator of some interest there, and then, you know, Kari Lake obviously ran in 2022.
We don't know what her plans are after losing the Senate race. You've got Tom Hatten, the founder of Mountainside Fitness, who has indicated he's considering it, but, you know, in that field, I think it remains to be seen what campaign from Tom might look like.
GILGER: OK. And and last question for you, and it's the political one, right. Like you mentioned that, you know, Hobbs is trying to walk this fine line. She won by a very narrow margin in 2022 over Kari Lake and she sort of did it by running down the middle, right, like a centrist candidate. Those candidates tend to do well in a state like Arizona in statewide elections.
BARCHENGER: Yeah, absolutely, but I think, you know, it's just really tricky for her right now. Like you mentioned, we have the Democratic Party kind of on, on both sides, and I think that, you know, you'll see Gov. Hobbs, her pitch to voters in 2026 is that she is this very centrist sort of candidate, but then you will also potentially see, you know, Karrin Taylor Robson making that same pitch and like we just saw. You know, this is a Republican advantage state.
GILGER: All right, we'll leave it there for now. The Arizona Republic's Stacey Barchenger joining us this morning. Stacey, thank you so much, appreciate it.
BARCHENGER: Yeah, thank you for having me.