Q&AZ: Does Arizona have its own Punxsutawney Phil? The tangled history of Agua Fria Freddie

Every year on Feb. 2, we turn to the nation’s furriest weather expert to learn if we can expect a long winter or an early spring.

Hundreds of people will gather in Pennsylvania for a range of celebrations, culminating in Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction on Sunday morning. If the groundhog sees his shadow, we can expect six more weeks of winter. If not, sunny skies are ahead.

Groundhog Day is upon us – even if it doesn’t matter so much here in the desert, where we wouldn’t mind if winter never ended. But did you know that Arizona has our own weather-predicting critter — or do we?

Groundhog Day was first celebrated in the United States in the late 19th century, although historians say that rodents were used even before then to predict weather. But not in Arizona. Here, we have Agua Fria Freddie, a rattlesnake who began predicting the weather in 1800.

That’s according to an article published in the Arizona Republic in 1975.

As you might have already guessed, the story of Agua Fria Freddie is an urban legend. But It’s difficult to get to the bottom of Freddie’s true origin story, even if you ask some of the state’s leading weather fanatics, like Earl Fosdick. He spent a number of years as a storm chaser.

"I was born and raised in Phoenix. I studied atmospheric science. I did work for the National Weather Service for awhile in Albuquerque," Fosdick said. "Never heard of Agua Fria Freddie. What is it, a rattlesnake?"

The National Weather Service last posted about Agua Fria Freddie’s predictions in February 2021.

"I think it’s funny but I, you know, I bet you the Weather Service wouldn’t do that now," Fosdick said.

Ed Phillips was a Valley TV and radio meteorologist for decades. He’s been interested in weather since he was 5, and he wrote the Arizona Weather Almanac for 27 years. Once he learned about the legend of Agua Fria Freddie, he began including it in the almanac.

Turns out, the pioneers had nothing to do with it.

"In spite of what you may have heard in the contrary, Agua Fria Freddie came out of the mind of a newspaper reporter quite some time ago. His name was Verne Peyser," Phillips said.

According to the 2000 edition of the Arizona Weather Almanac, the tale was first told in 1973.

"I was told the story originally by a very good friend of mine. His name was Bob Behm," Phillips said.

Behm was a National Weather Service meteorologist. He helped Peyser come up with the idea.

"He was so excited when I started passing along the legend of Agua Fria Freddie," Phillips said.

To be clear, there was never a real snake.

"Well, it’s a legend, it’s a myth! It’s all in our minds. I think it’s important that our, our legends continue because that’s part of the makeup of Arizona," he said.

This legend stuck. For years, Phillips included Freddie in his weather almanac, and the Republic published stories about the snake’s adventures, even quoting him.

In 1982, Peyser quoted Freddie saying, “What the heck. No matter what happens, it’s going to be nicer here than anywhere else in the country.”

Ed Phillips

In 2000, Republic columnist Clay Thompson called the legend "a desperate bid to seem amusing [that] never really caught on."

But in 2016, before the myth faded from Arizona’s collective memory, someone created a Facebook page for Freddie. They’ve been posting his alleged predictions every February since.

"It’s just ridiculous, you know, a rattlesnake looking at its shadow," said Cale Morris from the Phoenix Herpetological Sanctuary. He’s a native Arizonan, and he’s worked with snakes for almost his entire life. But he’s never heard of Agua Fria Freddie.

"Rattlesnakes’ shadows are pretty small, too, they’re only an inch above the ground, so they wouldn’t be able to see much of a shadow anyway," Morris said.

The moderator of Agua Fria Freddie’s Facebook account did not respond to KJZZ’s request for comment, but we’ll be keeping an eye on that page this Sunday.

Morgan Kubasko/KJZZ