KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about Karrin Taylor Robson officially entering next year’s gubernatorial race, lawmakers approving a measure they say will speed up election results and more, The Show sat down with Paul Bentz of HighGround and Mike Haener of Lumen Strategies.
Conversation highlights
MARK BRODIE: So Paul, let’s start with Karrin Taylor Robson. This has long been rumored that she would jump into the gubernatorial race, and this week she did. What kind of impact do you think she will have on this race? Of course, Congressman Andy Biggs has already announced he’s running.
PAUL BENTZ: Well, I think it’s going to be a very competitive Republican primary. Andy Biggs is a pretty well known commodity, especially in the Freedom Caucus circles. That being said, she gave Kari Lake quite a run for her money four years ago in the last gubernatorial primary. She’s an incredibly well-funded candidate. And most importantly, it would appear at this point that she has Trump’s endorsement.
I think we’re seeing some polling and some other information out there trying to sort of knock that off and try to cut into that, maybe give the president some doubts about that. But with the president’s endorsement and a well-funded campaign, she’s got to be a frontrunner at this point.
BRODIE: Obviously you said she gave Kari Lake a run for her money, money maybe being the operative phrase there. Because, as you say, Karrin Taylor Robson will be very well-funded. How significant is the Trump endorsement in that primary?
BENTZ: Well, what we’ve seen is that the Trump endorsement, whether it is in the congressional race CD8 for Abe Hamadeh …
BRODIE: In the West Valley.
BENTZ: In the West Valley. Or in the Senate race for Blake Masters previously. Throughout Arizona, Trump’s endorsement is as good as gold. He has incredible sway over the primary electorate.
And we’re looking at a head-to-head race. And certainly Andy Biggs is incredibly MAGA and has been before it was cool.
BRODIE: He was MAGA before there was MAGA.
BENTZ: And Tea Party and everything else. But the challenge that Biggs is going to have is that he has not been a prolific fundraiser. He is very good on the rhetoric side. He’s very good with the base, but he’s never proven to be a particularly good fundraiser.
And Karrin Taylor Robson’s not only independently wealthy but well-connected, has raised a lot of money for Trump, has raised a lot of money for the Victory Fund. And I think that puts her in a good position to talk to the electorate.
BRODIE: Mike, do you see this, as Paul does, as a pretty competitive primary?
MIKE HAENER: I agree 100%. It’s a very competitive primary. I disagree a little bit with Paul — I’m not sure that President Trump actually endorsed Taylor Robson. He said that “you would have my support.” That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s an endorsement.
We’ve seen it in the past where he’s endorsed two candidates in the same race. My expectation would be at some point he’s going to endorse Andy Biggs as well. And so this race is going to be very, very competitive.
And I think as Andy Biggs may not be a very good fundraiser, he has the support of Turning Point. And as Paul mentioned, he has the support of the base, and the base is who votes in the primary. And this election is all about the primary at this point. And I think Andy Biggs is going to give Karrin Taylor Robson a very good run for her money.
BRODIE: If you are Gov. Katie Hobbs at this point, do you have a preference as to who comes out of that primary?
HAENER: I don’t. No. Because that primary is 18 months away. We have no idea. We’ve seen seismic changes in the electorate’s thought process over the last four, six, eight years — very quickly change. And so at this point, if you’re wishing for one, you may get them and regret it.
BRODIE: Paul, we saw in, Karrin Taylor Robson’s announcement video, we’ve seen it in press releases: She’s really talking about Donald Trump a lot. So to your point earlier about the importance of that endorsement and that support, it seems like she’s really trying to lock it down. Even though, as Mike pointed out, Andy Biggs even is kind of questioning, “Did he fully endorse her? I’m not really so sure.”
BENTZ: Well, he said in his speech that she’d have his support. I think that they’re cozying up to the president and trying to ensure that they get that locked down. She’s raised significant amount of money for him. She’s raised significant amount of support for him. I suspect that this is all forays to ensure that she locks up that support.
That being said, this is why we’re seeing surveys out there right now showing that Andy Biggs has a lead. One of the surveys said that it was like 45-43 or something like that. Eighty-seven percent of the Republican primary electorate has not made up their mind in this election. I think those are all efforts, this a game targeted at one person, and that’s Trump.
That being said, I think the other reason she’s cozying up to him at this point is to try to build that support among the base, showing that direct connection between him and her, I think, is to her benefit. I suspect that they’ll start early trying to get out in front of this audience and narrate.
But one thing Mike said that I tend to disagree with slightly is I think Gov. Hobbs would absolutely much prefer to go up against Andy Biggs than Karrin Taylor Robson. It prevents the narrative that some folks have said about the last election that it had it been Robson and not Lake, that Robson would have won.
I also think that Biggs has challenges when it comes to his legislative record here in Arizona, as well as in Congress. You know, things like failing to restore Medicaid and other items that I think he would be vulnerable on in a general election. Whereas Karrin Taylor Robson can go to the right during the primary and then rely on her business and outsider background in the general election.
Her narrative to Trump right now should be like, “Look, I’m a business person like you. I’m not a part of the swamp, like somebody like a career politician like Andy Biggs.”
BRODIE: Last question on this, Paul: Is there still a percentage of the GOP base, the primary voters, who doesn’t trust Robson as being right enough?
BENTZ: Oh, certainly. I think we’re seeing that within the the Turning Point group. The folks that are initially backing Biggs right away, the early endorsements of Biggs, that’s certainly all part of that calculus that they’re looking at.
HAENER: Remember, too, that prior to this election in 2024, Karrin Taylor Robson hosted fundraisers for Chris Christie and for other candidates that were running against the eventual nominee, President Trump.
And so again, it’s a difficult thing to prognosticate 18 months from now. This is going to change multiple times. And that’s why, again, I think from the governor’s standpoint, it doesn’t really matter. Let the two of them fight it out. And whoever wins, wins. And that’s who she’s going to face come 2026.
BRODIE: Mike, let me ask you about an elections bill that the Legislature passed this week. They fast-tracked it. There were bills in both the House and Senate. Republicans say that this will speed up the process of counting the votes and having the results.
The big headline on this one is that if you want to drop off your early ballot, you would have to do so by 7 p.m. the Friday before Election Day. You would no longer be allowed to drop it off at a polling place on Election Day itself. The governor has been pretty clear that she’s not going to sign this.
HAENER: Correct. She has said multiple times that she will not sign that bill. The speed of voting or the speed of results doesn’t equate to disenfranchising voters in rural communities and tribal communities. And so, again, I think that this is not a serious attempt by the Republican Legislature to actually get a bill done and signed. This is just, again, kind of politics.
BRODIE: And to that point, the Republicans also appear to be crafting a version of this that would go to the ballot in two years to get around the governor’s vetoing it.
HAENER: Correct. And and again, this has multiple additional provisions in it related to the early voting list and how you would actually have to continue to participate in that early voting list. So it’s not just about election results.
The other thing is, if you really wanted to get election results in time or earlier or faster in 2026, you would work to come up with a bipartisan bill that’s signed into law and becomes effective before the 2026 election, rather than saying in 2025, “We’re going to put something on the ballot 18 months from now to maybe fix the 2028 election.”
BRODIE: Paul, it seems as though there’s sort of differing ideas between Republicans and Democrats — shocking, I know — about whether or not voters actually want faster results and care about fast results in the way in which that might happen.
BENTZ: Well, one thing to bear in mind is over half a million voters decided to drop off their ballot at a polling place on Election Day. So telling them that they can no longer do that is going to take a Herculean communications effort if you get rid of it.
It also depends on how you ask the question, right? Republicans are shopping data that says, “Oh, this is incredibly popular, to get results faster.”
But when you ask the question of voters, “Would you be willing to cut off early voting a few days early and stop the practice of dropping off ballots and making those folks vote in person? It’s worth it to get results faster” compared to “I’d rather continue to drop off ballots. It might take longer to count the results, but everyone should have a chance to cast their vote.”
Two-to-one would rather keep dropping off ballots. Keep it the way it is. But you say, “Would you like results faster?” they go shop data says “Oh, absolutely. Everybody wants results faster.” So they’ve got a little bit of a challenge on their hands.
If they put it on the ballot, I don’t see it being successful because I don’t think people want results that badly that they want to limit their ability to vote. People like convenience. People like the ability to drop it off on their time. This is what we see. If they were to change the law, they better put a significant amount of money in there to communicate with the audience. Otherwise, they’re going to have a lot of unhappy people on Election Day.
Remember back when they had the presidential preference election, and then independents aren’t allowed to vote in that election, and people were lining up and independents were kicked out of line and told they couldn’t vote? Without that communication, a lot of people lost their jobs. And so if you change the rules and you don’t communicate it, it’s going to be a huge challenge for whoever’s in office.
BRODIE: So Gov. Hobbs’ communications director had indicated that the governor might be willing to go along with the 7 o’clock Friday evening before Election Day if Republicans would do other things like same-day registration and things like that. Does that make it more palatable to voters, do you think?
BENTZ: Not necessarily. Same day registration has not been a big mover among the electorate. I think that people get concerned about fraud. I think the bigger challenge that they have is this notion that they’ve got to confirm their address.
The whole beautiful part of the Active Early Voting List is that you signed up to vote, and you get sent ballots. And as long as you vote them, you stay on the list. Making extra hoops to jump through, we already see, stifles and chills participation are you works for independents. Independents can vote in our primary elections with the exception of the presidential preference. But they’re sent a postcard. They have to pick a ballot. It’s a whole procedure. And that’s why independents don’t vote and are treated unfairly in our primary election system.
This is an extension of that. If you make people vote and verify every single time, you’re chilling voter participation.
BRODIE: Mike, this would be the second change to the early voting list — whatever you want to call it — in not that long, right? Because it used to be the Permanent Early Voting List. Then the Legislature changed it to say that if you haven’t voted in the last couple cycles, you have to reaffirm that you want to stay on the early voting list.
And it was changed to the Active Early Voting List. Do you agree with Paul that that would not be a popular provision among voters?
HAENER: I agree 100%.
BRODIE: If you had to reaffirm your address.
HAENER: Again, remember that about 80% to 85%, I think, of the electorate actually vote by mail. And so any time that you’re trying to limit their ability to do that now, they have to change their behavior. It’s less likely that they’re going to vote. The whole point of early voting was supposed to make it easier and more convenient for people to do it. Because elections are held on a Tuesday; a lot of people work on Tuesdays.
And so this was a convenient way for people to participate in our elections. And like I said, it’s incredibly popular. And so every time you start to tinker with that, you run the risk of disenfranchising voters. And as Paul said, chilling the, the, right to vote.
BENTZ: One other thing real quick. We’ve heard that “don’t California my Arizona” a lot. Calling this the Florida-style law I don’t think does what they think it does. I don’t think people want to Florida our Arizona. There’s shows called “Florida Man,” for example. I don’t think Florida-ing our Arizona elections is something that a lot of voters will look at. I think it would ultimately be a negative connotation, not a positive one.
