KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about a statewide elected Democrat looking at a potential run for Congress, finger pointing over budget shortfalls and more, The Show sat down with Chuck Coughlin of HighGround and former state House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding.
Conversation highlights
MARK BRODIE: So Reginald, let me start with you. (Arizona Secretary of State) Adrian Fontes has sent out a note this week saying he is “strongly considering” a run for Raúl Grijalva’s congressional seat. Fontes, of course, was Maricopa County recorder, lives in Phoenix but is from that part of the state, was born in Nogales, I believe. Is this a surprise that he is taking such a strong look at this?
REGINALD BOLDING: No, it’s not a surprise. I think the floating the possibility of running is just out of respect for the services for it for Mr. Grijalva. I mean, I think that there is a 100% chance that he’s going to enter into the race.
I do think that Adelita Grijalva, Raúl Grijalva’s daughter, a Pima County supervisor — she served on the school board for 20 years there. I could see those two probably being the top two candidates running for that office.
BRODIE: One hundred percent chance Fontes gets in, Chuck?
CHUCK COUGHLIN: Yeah. Good. Gone. Done. Despite other people telling him, “Why are you doing that?” But I think, hey, as secretary of state, you make $70,000 a year. He’s got two kids in high school that he’s putting through college. You win that seat as a Democrat, you’re a lifelong congressman, you’re making $200,000-plus a year.
And it’s a tough job. You’ve got to run every two years. But it’s a Democratic safe seat.
BRODIE: So I’m curious about this because, Reginald, you mentioned Adelita Grijalva, and she was often mentioned as a candidate when her late father said that last year’s run would be his last — obviously before he passed away.
It seems like a bit of a risk for Fontes. He’s up in two years for reelection as secretary of state, but he’s leaving a current job for a congressional seat against the daughter of a member of Congress who just died.
BOLDING: Yeah. This is very reminiscent of what happened in Phoenix when (longtime U.S. Rep.) Ed Pastor passed. There were conversations about whether or not Laura Pastor or run. All of the polling suggested, had she ran, she would have won. She decided not to run.
Then you had (Ruben) Gallego vs. Mary Rose Wilcox. Gallego eventually won, now a U.S. senator. I think it’s, in such a short amount of time to have someone with current name ID who’s been down there, history. It could be — it is a risk. It is a significant risk.
BRODIE: So Chuck, if you are Adrian Fontes and his advisors, what do you need to see in polling, in focus groups, I guess to feel good and feel safe about leaving his current job to run for that?
COUGHLIN: Yeah. So let’s talk about the electorate. So it’s a very small, it’s probably 20,000 votes. That’s all, that’s who’s going to vote.
BRODIE: Because of the special election.
COUGHLIN: It’s special election. It’s a Democratic primary in a low-turnout district. So it’s sort of a rifle shot at a particular constituency. So I agree with my colleague here that the sympathies will be with her, but she is again a county supervisor. There’s no real narrative around that.
Adrian’s got a pretty big narrative that he brings to the table about straightening out elections. He’s from Nogales. That’s a giant port of entry. He has a lot of economic credentials. He’s a veteran. Dad’s ranch was on the border. He’s got a lot of stories to tell about his upbringing. He still owns property down there.
But he’s going to have a hard time. I think Daniel Hernandez is probably going to run as well.
BRODIE: Former state lawmaker.
COUGHLIN: Former state lawmaker, ran for Congress in the other district down there. He’s going to be in the ring as well. So it’s who can identify a constituency that I can turn out reliably. You would say you’d give a nose to that to Grijalva out of the sympathy vote. That happens in a very quick election here.
But, you know, she’s going to have to raise money. She’s going to have to organize herself. She’s going to have to do that. Adrian will have to do that. Daniel will have to do that. Maybe Daniel and she sort of split up some of that very liberal base. Maybe there’s a window there for Adrian to walk through.
BRODIE: In terms of name ID, I would think that Fontes certainly has it, but to Grijalva, her last name ID — I mean, that’s pretty strong. Voters have been seeing that name on the ballot for two decades.
BOLDING: Yeah, that. Absolutely right. Chuck was absolutely right when you talk about that base of the voters. I would say that the Democrats who are probably going to be voting in this, they’re going to be probably more likely Democrats who tend to vote often in elections, which means that they’re going to have had a voting history for Grijalva.
Which also means they’re also going to probably know of Adrian Fontes as well. It’s going to be an interesting race. I also think if you’re Fontes, you say, “I’ll run in this race. If I lose, I’ll run for secretary of state again in 2026.” I can potentially see that happening.
BRODIE: That’s. And that will probably depend — on assuming he does this — the dominoes of who Gov. Hobbs appoints to replace him and whether that person chooses to run. That’s a whole other conversation.
Chuck, let me ask you about — speaking of Gov. Hobbs — she’s going to have to name a new director of the Arizona National Guard, adjutant general. The current one is stepping down. And it seems as though this is sort of taking on the national dialog over “wokeness” in the military. How easy or difficult do you think it will be for the governor to get her nominee through?
COUGHLIN: Well, historically, it comes from inside the ranks, right? It historically comes from somebody that’s currently serving in the National Guard. (Kerry) Muehlenbeck was one of those people, the previous one. So it usually comes with a record of service.
And I don’t know, last time I checked, I didn’t see a lot of wokeness going on in our National Guard unit out here. So I think (Hobbs) can pretty much pick and choose from somebody who’s a valued public servant, veteran of the Arizona National Guard that’s capable of leading it.
BRODIE: So, Reginald, we’ve seen — obviously, and we’ve talked about it on The Show several times — the trouble the governor’s had in getting her agency nominees appointed and confirmed. Do you agree with Chuck that this one might be, if not lower profile then maybe just a little easier, assuming that she picks somebody who’s already a member of the National Guard?
BOLDING: I think this is going to be more profile than it should be, right? Right now, you have rising domestic deployments, border tensions, disaster response. You have all of these things that are currently at play. You turn on the news, you see (Secretary of Defense Pete) Hegseth, Trump and all of these things that are happening.
This is going to be something that I do think that the Legislature is going to absolutely politicize. And I think the governor has to show what her vision is for border, military readiness — all of that’s going to be wrapped up into one.
COUGHLIN: (State Sen. Jake) Hoffman’s appointed a few. He’s let a few past the gates down there. Jake Hoffman, the chairman of the committee. The (Arizona Department of Corrections) director was last year. That could have been politicized. He’s currently appointed and serving. There’s others that fit that same mold. So I think (Hobbs), knowing what we all know in the room right now, I think that would weigh heavily on who you’re going to pick.
BRODIE: All right. So Reginald, I want to ask you quickly before we go to break: We see now the three finalists to replace Sen. Eva Burch in Mesa who resigned. Anything stand out to you about the three names that are going to the County board of Supervisors?
BOLDING: No. I think they’re all good folks. I think that all three of them would add a uniqueness to that Democratic caucus, into that body in general. I mean, I know they all have histories of working across the aisle.
So I think each one of the candidates brings something a little bit more unique. And at the end of the day, I don’t think that they can go wrong.
BRODIE: Chuck, forgive me for asking you cynical political question here. For the county Board of Supervisors, they are majority Republican. This is a swing district. Are they thinking about putting a Democrat maybe in that office who is maybe more vulnerable come next election?
COUGHLIN: Wouldn’t be a bad thought there. Mark. (Mesa Democrats) gave them one, too. I mean, they gave them (Ryan) Winkle, who’s got a history, has a problem with DUI. Was on the Mesa City Council, then was removed from the Mesa City Council. So they gave them one that would abide that.
Now, I’ve also seen that appointment process. They generally defer to the Democrat on the board to have a larger say in that.
BRODIE: Even if it’s not their district?
COUGHLIN: Even if it’s not their district, they are very collegial about that historically. And so it’ll be interesting to see — given the new dynamics down on the board, there’s a lot of difference and changes that have gone on down there — how that process works out as well.
