KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about another proposal to deal with immigration, another entrant into a congressional race and more, The Show sat down with Matthew Benson of Veridus and Matt Grodsky of Matters of State Strategies.
Conversation highlights
MARK BRODIE: This kind of feels like deja vu all over again, as Yogi Berra once said. Sen. Ruben Gallego pitching a plan that he hopes will be bipartisan on border security and immigration reform. I'm curious what you make of this compared with past efforts by senators like Kyrsten Sinema, Jeff Flake, John McCain from Arizona.
MATT GRODSKY: Sure, no, I mean, I think it's a great effort, a good idea on his part. It shows leadership. For the longest time, Republicans always talk about how immigration is the number one issue. We have to solve that.
And yes, while, you know, crossings are down and the president has gotten a lot of credit for that, I think the senator is looking for long term solutions. And if he doesn't get bipartisan support on this, he can always point back and say, “look, I was the one who tried. Why aren't you guys trying now?”
BRODIE: Matt Benson, do you think you will get bipartisan support on this?
MATTHEW BENSON: I'm skeptical. And in part because we've, we've kind of seen this play out, we've seen how this movie ends multiple, multiple times and brought by folks from both parties. But here's the challenge right now, you know, traditionally the idea was Republicans thought, well this has to be done by Congress, it has to be somehow comprehensive.
You have to, there has to be some give and takes, you know, border security here, pathway for Dreamers over there. I, I think President Trump has shown that actually, no you don't. And, and Trump has just chosen to go about this administratively, focused purely on border security.
He has dropped the crossings to a virtual trickle and for conservatives and Republicans writ large, I'm not sure what the motivation is now that they have to get behind a comprehensive approach like what Gallego has put forward.
BRODIE: So you're thinking is that conservatives and Republicans are happy with what they have and don't feel the need to give on stuff they don't necessarily want.
BENSON: 100%. I mean from their perspective, the status quo works. There's virtually no crossings at this point, and they don't have to give up anything in terms of, you know, anything that could be considered amnesty among base voters on the right.
BRODIE: So Matt Grodsky, is that how big of a challenge do you think that might be to Sen. Gallego and his colleagues who might want to do this?
GRODSKY: It's a clear challenge, I think they anticipate that challenge. I think again this is a short term period of time where these crossings are low, but the reality is if you zoom out, Republicans, since it feels like the beginning of time, they want this as a wedge issue. It's a useful issue when we get to midterms or presidential election years.
So if the onus is not on them to have to solve it and they can just hide behind the president and his executive authority, that's a win for them. So I think the senator and his team recognize that, but again this comes back to showing leadership, which is something he'll be able to point back to when this issue heats up again.
BENSON: And I, I would only suggest that I think both parties have demonstrated over the last 40 years they're happy to use this as a wedge issue.
BRODIE: And, and it certainly has been a wedge issue that both parties have used. I'm curious though, Matt, when you talk about leadership. Is this also something he might point back to for, I don't know, maybe a run for another office, and there's been a lot of talk. He held a town hall in suburban Philadelphia not that long ago. There's been a lot of talk that he might have aspirations higher than the U.S. Senate.
GRODSKY: Yeah, maybe. I don't think he's wrong to keep that door open. The nature of where we are in the world right now, we don't know what the next week is going to look like in the political climate, let alone where we're going to be in 2028. So I think it's, it's wise for him and leaders like him to, you know, keep that door open and, and identify opportunities and have stuff to point back to if that opportunity presents itself.
BRODIE: Do you think he runs?
GRODSKY: We'll see. I don't know. I don't have my crystal ball plugged in, but it wouldn't be a bad pick.
BRODIE: Matt Benson, do you think, I mean, do you think this is in some way, you know, introducing this bill, having the rally in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, like, is this, is this done with an eye maybe on something else other than the Senate?
BENSON: Potentially, I, I mean, I think it's done with an eye toward making himself a player on the national stage, and, and I think he's pretty quickly doing that and he certainly has the the biography to make for an interesting candidate on a on a national level, whether this leads to a presidential run or not. I think I agree with Matt G., it's much too early to say.
BRODIE: All right, fair enough. We'll, we'll just focus on the 2026 election a year ahead as opposed to the 2028 election three years ahead.
So Matt Grodsky, let me ask you about the First Congressional District. We have one candidate. We had one candidate, Marlene Galan Woods, who ran last year, who's planning to run again next year against incumbent Republican David Schweikert. We now have a second candidate. This is the candidate who actually won the primary, Amish Shah, former state representative, who has announced he's getting back in.
We should say you worked with another of the candidates last year who was in the race, who is not, we don't think, getting in the race again this time. But like, so now we have two candidates who already did this. Like, is this sort of rerun good for Democrats in this district?
GRODSKY: We're going to need a longer show for this one, but there are two candidates in the race that ran last time. There are actually additional candidates currently in the race that are less well known. The individual I worked with last time will not be running this time around. You know, I think like the rest of us, we're all recovering from that race.
Here's the problem, unless they find a way to make this a two-way race between Marlene Woods and Amish Shah, I think given what history has shown us, Shah comes out on top, just given the nature of the district and the name ID he's established, having worked in LD 5, and done such a good job knocking doors.
Now, the problem is, I'm not sure if that translates into a general election win, given how much voter registration has dropped off for Democrats since the ‘22 election. Between 2022 and 2024, Republicans added 11,000 voters. We added a little over 2,500. So unless we solve that issue, it's going to be really hard to beat Schweikert even if it is a big wave year.
BRODIE: Well, Matt Benson, like Democrats have been talking about knocking off David Schweikert in congressional races seemingly since he first got in, however long ago that was. He, he's, he's a tough out.
BENSON: He's a survivor. Democrats on, on many occasions and through many cycles have thought this is the year, this is the year we got him, and it hasn't panned out that way. You know, typically you'd think a midterm year like what we have coming up should be in the Democrats' favor, but, you know, the voter registration in that district is gonna be increasingly challenging for the Democrats and. I, I would hesitate to take my money off of Schweikert.
BRODIE: Is this the kind of race where, I mean, and we see this not just in Arizona but around the country, where candidates in one cycle lose and then come back and try to run again. And sometimes they win and sometimes they don't.
Is this the kind of race that having familiarity, let's say that either Woods or Shah are the winners of the primary and face Schweiker again? Like, is having, having somebody who's done it before helpful or or is it time maybe for a reset?
BENSON: I mean, sometimes it helps in terms of the name ID there's some, you know, some residual from from the last cycle, but also I, I, I feel like voters tend to feel like, you know, this is a sequel, and the sequel is never as good as the original, and so I, I don't believe either of those two candidates can knock him out.
BRODIE: Matt Grodsky, do you think this is a good case for a rerun, or would it be better maybe if somebody new?
GRODSKY: I think there's an argument to be made on familiarity, but the problem is the dynamics have not changed. You know, registration has not dramatically swung in Democrats' favor. The primary itself, we haven't gotten smart enough to narrow the field enough where, you know, it can be a horse race or just cleared for one candidate, so you can spend a year and a half building resources for someone in the general election.
So again, I'm highly skeptical about the results of how this turns out with whoever the nominee is once we get to the general because we haven't gotten our act together as a party.
BRODIE: All right, Matt, let me stick with you. We just heard from Gov. Katie Hobbs, who was here yesterday. She said that there really haven't been any budget talks and we're, you know, 56 weeks away from the end of the fiscal year. That doesn't seem great.
GRODSKY: It doesn't seem great. It's not surprising given the way that the Republicans in the Legislature have comported themselves. They've decided that they're going to go on vacation instead of, you know, having budget conversations, and then there's the whole Prop. 123 thing which is, you know, expiring next month.
So heard her interview, share her frustration, you know, unfortunately, this goes back to how Democrats need to message and make the case for why we need to take control of the ledge finally instead of having this divided government situation.
BRODIE: So Matt Benson, let me ask you, because you worked in a governor's office, you worked for Gov. Brewer, and there were some, she, you know, the budget process was not always super smooth, even though she had a Republican legislature that she was working with. Is this the kind of thing, like, is it surprising to you that here on May 16, that there really haven't been substantive talks between the governor's office and the Legislature?
BENSON: No, nothing surprises me in terms of the state Capitol. I, I, and governors complaining about the Legislature going on break because that's a tale as old as time. I mean, Governor Brewer did it, Napolitano did it, Ducey did it. Now, now Katie Hobbs is doing it, so.
I think typically the dynamic is that, you know, time is not on the Legislature's side, you know, the governor is going to be on the ninth floor all summer anyway, and so the Legislature would prefer to finish up, get back to their jobs, especially as it gets hotter and all of that.
So I, look, they're gonna, they're going to get together, they're going to hash this out. They will figure it out. I am confident between now and the end of the year or the end of the fiscal year, which is the end of June. And ultimately, you know, the fact that it's mid-May and they haven't done it yet, I don't think politically matters.
