It is officially budget time at the state Capitol. The House, which has been going it alone during this process, approved its proposal late Friday.
Democrats skipped the vote and Gov. Katie Hobbs has said she would not sign that package of bills. The Senate, which has been negotiating with the governor, is expected to release its plan later Monday. Leaders hope to approve it by Wednesday.
That still leaves the question of how and when the two chambers get on the same page — the fiscal year ends at midnight two weeks from today.
Howie Fischer of Capitol Media Services joined The Show to discuss.
Full conversation
MARK BRODIE: Good morning, Howie.
HOWARD FISCHER: Good morning. I am anxious to hear your report later on how we make government run more efficiently since we're still here on June 16.
BRODIE: That is a very, very good point. So Howie, let's step back into the recent wayback machine Friday night. The House is voting on its budget, kind of a half empty chamber though it sounds like.
FISCHER: Well, pretty much the Democrats said, look, we're happy to talk with you. We'd like to be part of it and you've been left out, so why are we here? You know, they also recognized that it's not like this is the final budget. I mean, there are times that the Democrats have been left out and so what they'll do is they'll try to amend provisions to say “let's not have the cuts for Medicaid is deep,” or “let's add some money for housing.”
At this point they said, look, the governor has bee announced, as you point out, this budget is DOA. The Senate is off on its own plan, and they've actually been working with the governor and with Democratic senators, and it has about $300 million more in spending, so they say, “you know, there's no reason for us to be here at 10 o'clock at night to witness what, a dead budget?”
BRODIE: So, Howie, do we have a sense of potential similarities and differences between the House budget and the Senate budget that we're hoping to see a little bit later on today?
FISCHER: I think that there is some belief that you need sufficient cash carry forward. That's part of what they're looking at is we recognize that there's a good chance of a recession, not this coming fiscal year, but the next fiscal year, and so they're also trying to figure out how much do we need to save. So I think they're both agreeing on that.
I think there's some agreement on some of the policy issues in terms of perhaps even some work requirements for public benefits and such. I think there's a belief that you need to have sufficient funding for K-12 and universities. They're also separately working on some extension of Prop. 123 and the $350 million that brings in every year from the trust fund.
Beyond that, I think we're, we're arguing about projects and priorities, for example, one of the things in the House budget, remember the budget is more than just numbers, it's policy, would allow people to be locked up for up to five days for involuntary commitment for, for, for treatment. That's not in the Senate version of the budget.
So those are the kinds of things that I think will be the hangups here. Some of it is numbers, but some of it is what policies do you want to do. For example, you know, we know that last week we were writing about the fact that they were trying to overturn Prop 308 in some form. And say if you're not here legally you don't get to pay in state tuition. Will that be in both versions of the budget?
I think it's possible, but there may be something where the governor says I'm not gonna sign that, so don't put it in the Senate version and it's all those tiny tiny little details that are gonna keep us here perhaps right up until the end until somebody finally says, you know, why, why are we here? Let's just, you know, split the difference, find something we can work with with the governor and go home.
BRODIE: Well, Howie, I want to ask you about that because as we've mentioned, the House passed its budget. The Senate has been working with the governor. Have you heard from lawmakers on either side of the Capitol Plaza that like one chamber is inclined to get on board with the other's plan?
FISCHER: No, because each of them believes that their plan is, you know, the one that handed down from on high. And so what it may take is the Senate President Peterson saying, OK, I'll put the House budget up for a vote in the Senate, and we'll see what happens.
My guess is there are not sufficient votes in the Senate for the House budget, although there are a lot of Republicans there who probably like the House budget because it's more conservative. And then if the House budget goes down, he goes back to the House says, OK, let's talk. Or conversely, you know, House Speaker Steve Montenegro could say, OK, send me your Senate budget. I'll put it up, and then if it doesn't pass, then we're going to have to talk.
But I think there needs to be a reality check here that they both need to acknowledge they don't have the votes for each of their own plans and, you know, it becomes sort of mutually assured destruction. If we don't do something by June 30, we're in deep kimchi here.
BRODIE: Right. Well, so Howie, you mentioned that the budget is, of course, more than just numbers, there's a lot of policy in there. Does it seem as though the, and you kind of alluded to this, that there might be some policy areas of policy agreement, Might that be the way that the House and Senate and governor kind of find common ground here?
FISCHER: Well, that's gonna be tricky because some of the things in what they call these budget reconciliation bills are things that governors vetoed in the past. Like for example, you know, having food stamp recertification more often. And so that may be a non-starter for her. I think there are some common ground again, I think that the Republicans at least are interested in curbing back in-state tuition for people who are not here legally despite the fact that voters approved it in 2022.
It's crafting something that can come up, as they say with 16 votes in the Senate, 31 in the House, and the big vote, the, you know, the governor, because there aren't the votes to override the governor no matter what. So it has to be negotiated. Everybody's going to have to give. The Democrats are going to have to accept some cuts that they don't like, The Republicans are going to have to accept some spending on programs that they don't like, but we're not there yet.
BRODIE: Interesting. Well, hopefully we get there in the next couple of weeks. That is Howie Fisher of Capital Media Services. Howie, thank you as always.
FISCHER: Well, it has to be more than hopefully because come July 1, there's no authority to keep the government open.
