The Epstein files are throwing a major wrench in Donald Trump’s airtight grip on the Republican Party. And here in Arizona, the issue is changing the dynamics in a very MAGA GOP primary race for governor.
Both candidates — Andy Biggs and Karen Taylor Robson — are touting Trump’s endorsement in the race. But when it came to the Epstein files, Biggs, who is a U.S. representative, had a choice: Make a stand with Donald Trump or the MAGA base.
But Arizona Republic columnist E.J. Montini says it wasn’t really a choice at all.
Montini joined The Show along with editorial page editor Elvia Díaz to talk more about it.
Full conversation
LAUREN GILGER: Ed, this Epstein files thing is really dividing the GOP in a way that we haven’t really seen any other issue do. Tell us why.
E.J. MONTINI: Well, I think essentially it’s because I think that the MAGA people are quite accustomed to Donald Trump saying one thing and doing another for issues that don’t matter that much to them, and they’re OK with that.
But this thing really did matter to them. They were very interested in exposing all the Epstein files, and that became something that Donald Trump and Republicans across the country ran on in the election, really pumped that up, were really playing to their base.
And then when it came to the point where they could actually do it, they’ve suddenly decided to back off. And so you now have these people who have put all their faith in this guy are saying, “Wait a minute, didn’t we all say that we were going to do this? And why aren’t you doing this now?”
And so someone like Biggs, when the vote comes to should we release all the Epstein files and not release all the Epstein files, his decision has to become, “Do I stick with Donald Trump, my dear leader? Or do I go with the MAGA base, with all these people who essentially put me in office?”
And he wants to be governor of Arizona, and he doesn’t think he could be governor of Arizona without Donald Trump. So he’s sticking with Trump and going against the base.
GILGER: Right, so he voted in the House Oversight Committee against a move to issue a subpoena to the Justice Department to release the Epstein files. The vote was 8-2. Definitely he was in the minority here.
Elvia, let me turn to you and ask you about that assessment of the importance of Trump’s role in the gubernatorial race here in Arizona. Both candidates, as I pointed out, have gotten Trump’s endorsement to an extent. How much of a difference do you think this vote could make for Biggs?
ELVIA DÍAZ: Well, I can make a big difference because we know that folks like him have loyalty to Trump, to the man — not to the Constitution and not to the American people, but to the man. He is betting on Donald Trump still being powerful moving into that midterm elections. And so he is betting on, I’m assuming, that people are going to move forward from this Epstein file but Trump is still going to be there.
And in the GOP primary, he absolutely needs Trump’s support. But also Trump’s support needs to translate into a MAGA vote. And again, we’re only talking about that GOP primary. When it comes to the general election, that’s going to be a totally different ballgame. And we have seen before that loyalty to Trump is not necessarily a huge winner in Arizona when it comes to appealing to a broader electorate, when you have to appeal to moderates; to other Republicans that are not necessarily part of MAGA; and to the Democrats.
So he is betting on that. He’s also betting that (Karrin) Taylor Robson is not very good at handling Trump and not very good at handling MAGA anyway.
GILGER: Right. So Ed, Elvia is looking forward to the general election there. Do you think when it comes to the primary, this could really hurt Biggs with the MAGA base? Or could it be an issue for Robson to take up?
MONTINI: Yeah, it should be a real issue for her to take up. I mean, she should know already that she got Trump’s tacit endorsement to begin the race because she was the only one in the race. Biggs enters the race. Trump says, “I actually endorse them both.” Well, that’s not really true. He’s really endorsing Biggs.
And it’s particularly true since Turning Point Action and Charlie Kirk have gotten behind Biggs as well. So if I were Robson and if I were advising Robson, I would say, “Look, Biggs has Trump, you should get the base.” She should be out there saying, “Look, I know what you people really want through these Epstein files, and if I were in Congress, if I were Andy Biggs, I would be pushing for these files to be released.”
I mean, she’s never going to be the Trump favorite in this race, and she should know that. But she could still get the MAGA people if she went along these lines. So for primary purposes, that’s what I would do if I were her. But she, I think, is also terribly afraid of Trump, as every political candidate in America is afraid of Donald Trump. Well, Republican candidate in America.
And so I don’t think she’ll do that. And so I I think Andy Biggs will probably cruise through the primary.
GILGER: Elvia, do you think that this is the issue that could actually break the MAGA base? Could anything?
DÍAZ: We don’t know. That’s a short answer. But it sure is looking that way. I’m very surprised that this is how they’re breaking up with him, in a way.
But just look at how Trump has become unpopular lately. And that’s because his own people do not like what they’re seeing, or at least they don’t like how he’s doing that job.
Take immigration, for example. MAGA is really for deporting people, but they’re beginning to wonder, “Is this a way to do it?” Slashing the federal workforce, then the tariffs — he’s very unpopular with that.
And Arizona is a border state. It’s a huge trader with Mexico. They’re beginning to wonder about the tariffs as well. So all of that combined could have a ripple effect, a real one.
But I’m still surprised that it was the absinthe file that really riled the MAGA base against Trump.
GILGER: Ed, let me turn to you lastly and ask about the other side of the coin here. Are Democrats also playing politics here with this Epstein Files thing, focusing on it so much because they know that it will hurt Trump?
MONTINI: Well, they’re doing that because it’s the only thing they’ve got. The Democrats have been playing defense, and they’re going to be playing defense until the end of Trump’s term, I’m sure, because if you don’t have any juice within Congress, if you’re in the minority in both houses and the president is the way he is and the Supreme Court is the way it is, you have very few options in terms of what it is you can do to actually change the course of policy or anything like that.
And so you have to make noise, and you have to make noise with whatever comes your way. And this has come their way. And they recognize at the same time that if we really got down to the nitty gritty with all the Epstein associates, there’s a lot of Democrats in there, too.
And they’re just saying, “Look, we’re willing to bite that bullet right now because we know, for one thing, that there’s a ton of Donald Trump in there. And we’ll take a ton of Donald Trump, even if we have to sacrifice some of our own people.”
And actually, it shouldn’t be about Donald Trump or Democrats or Republicans. It should be about sleazy guys connected to an even sleazy guy who’s connected to one of the worst kinds of predation policies that exist: taking advantage of young people. It’s awful.
And so, in theory, everyone should be in favor of transparency for every aspect of this in order to root it out and try to prevent it from happening again.
And so from that point of view, it’s a shame that it even got into that kind of political base. But it does show you how much power politics has even over something that everyone can agree is bad.
