KJZZ Friday NewsCap: Trump's attack on mail-in voting risks big Republican losses in Arizona

To talk about calls from some high-ranking Republicans for the state party chair to step down, the possibility of a new entrant in the governor’s race and more are Doug Cole of HighGround and former state House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding.

Conversation highlights

MARK BRODIE: So Doug, let me start with you on a potential new entrant into the governor's race on the Republican side. Congressman David Schweikert says he says he is thinking about it. What might that thought process look like?

DOUG COLE: Well, you know, stating the obvious, the Republican primary is a year away. We do have Karrin Taylor Robson and Congressman Andy Biggs that have announced that they're running, and both have been endorsed proudly by President Trump. Which is the gold standard that you need in, in Republican politics right now.

I, you know, David Schweikert ... is a survivor. He is a good campaigner. He knows retail politics. He has, you know, been in the statehouse, he was the county treasurer and has been in Congress for many, many terms.

I think it's, you know, at this point, in August of the year before an election, it's always good to throw your name out there in the ring. It's good for fundraising. Nationally, it raises your profile. He has a very good political consultant that's been with him his whole career, Chris Baker.

It's a power play move. In fact, the mere fact, Mark, here on a Friday on KJZZ that you and Reginald and I are talking about it, the strategy is working. Yesterday at the League of Cities and Towns, it was a topic of conversation for a huge panel breakout.

So at the end of the day, I see him staying in Congress. This will help with his fundraising, and it'll probably help him as he moves up in seniority and looking for a really good subcommittee or committee chairmanship in Congress.

BRODIE: Reginald, what do you think? I mean, obviously, as Doug said, we are talking about him when probably absent this, we would not be talking about him in August, the year before the election. Is this something — even if he doesn't decide to run — does this help him in his re-election campaign?

REGINALD BOLDING: I'm not sure it helps some in this reelection campaign. I will say that this is a signal that the candidates right now for governor in the GOP race, no one is very excited about either one of them.

I think that this for Katie Hobbs, this is something that she's, she would be excited about. Yhat at this stage in the game, you already have two declared candidates who were both endorsed by Trump. And you have another prominent Republican saying, hey, I could probably do the job better than those two.

It's more of a signal that the candidates who are currently in the race probably aren't as strong as the GOP apparatus would want them to be in order to go against an incumbent Democratic governor.

BRODIE: Doug, is there a sense in Republican circles that the two candidates who have already announced can't beat Katie Hobbs?

COLE: No, I think that there's a lot of excitement. And that's part of the problem — because the Republican voters are split. They’ve both been, as I stated earlier, they've both been endorsed by President Trump.

Karrin Taylor Robson, as she did last cycle, is going to do a lot of self-funding. She is raising money. Biggs is not raising money as fast as I think he would like to, but Turning Point has said that they're going to get behind him.

We really haven't seen any solid backing yet, but you know, they have a lot of, you know, third-party organizations and independent expenditures that may, that they have committed to that. So, you know, it's going to be a real intraparty fight between the two of them.

That's why I don't think a third person's going to step in, because it's going to be so expensive. Aecause if you got TPA's money back in Biggs, you got Karrin Taylor Robson with the business community and her own self-funding, that's going to be hard to compete in that field.

Elections

Schweikert is considering a run for Arizona governor in 2026

Camryn Sanchez

Arizona Republican Congressman David Schweikert is considering a run for governor in 2026. A spokesman for Schweikert says several “prominent” Republicans have approached him about running for governor.

BRODIE: Reginald, let me start with you on something President Trump said this week that he wants to do away with mail-in ballots, do away with voting machines. He referred to states as quote “agents for the federal government.” Now we all know that, you know, the vast majority of Arizonans cast their ballots by mail, and we also know that the president can't unilaterally change that, that's left to the states and, and Congress to some extent. What impact though might these comments have in his again, he's sort of on again off again distrust of mail and voting?

BOLDING: Yeah, I think it's important to be clear that the Constitution gives voting powers to the states, not the president, and I think that's extremely important.

I mean, when you think about Arizona, Republicans have pioneered in many cases mail-in ballots. And, and of course, you know, Democrats have, you know, been wildly successful, from, you know, when mail-in started. So much, you know, 80% of Arizonans choose to vote by mail.

And, and I can tell you that what we're hearing, right now and what we're seeing is that, you know, the Republican Party is looking to go back to you know, a couple of cycles ago where Donald Trump urged everyone to, you know, to take your ballot and drop it off. And what you saw was widespread Democratic victories.

BRODIE: In 2020.

BOLDING: In 2020. And I think that's what you're what you're going to continue to see if this is something that's continues to push.

I mean, I kind of have to say, you know, it's like burning down your house because you don't like the color of the paint. You know, at the end of the day, you don't have a house. So I mean, if you're going to ask, you know, Republicans to not mail in their ballots, or try to change the entire system, I think there's going to be a litany of court challenges. And I also think that it's jus not smart politics.

BRODIE: Is this a tough message for Republicans, especially in Arizona? As Reginald said, Republicans mastered the art of, of mail-in voting.

COLE: Look, I was deputy chief of staff to Fife Symington in the ‘90s and we're the ones that, that, that ran the legislation to allow for no excuse absentee balloting, which is, which is early balloting. And then in 2007, we added the permanent early voting list, OK.

So Republicans have made this — Reginald's correct — have made this the hallmark here in the state of Arizona of success. We have mastered, you know, get out the vote campaigns. Tun in your ballots early, going into the retirement communities and be sure as soon as they're mailed 30 days out, they turn them in within days, so we have those votes banked. And that's what we have done. So ... and it's been running around 80%, sometimes a little bit higher, OK.

But this is, you know, being looked at from the Trump administration as political people from a national perspective, OK? He — while it looks like Donald Trump is just pulling stuff off the top of his head when he sat there with Zelensky in the in the, in the Oval Office and said this ... this is stuff that has been decided by his political people. That in order not to not to have the calamity of 2018 when Nancy Pelosi took over the House, that they're going to have to go a multi-pronged attack on how this midterm election's going to go. Because he does not want to have another Nancy Pelosi leading of the House of Representatives. He wants to continue to have Republicans on both sides.

So it's a multi-pronged attack. He's seen data that if they, if they go after early voting and shut it down, you know — there's eight states in the, in the District of Columbia that allow for all-mail elections, OK?

So if he goes and shuts that down, along with these redistricting of plays that's going on in Texas and other states — which cannot happen here in Arizona, thank goodness. That is going to be the the checkerboard, the chess board that he is going to play off of to try to keep 2018 of not happening again.

BOLDING: Yeah, I mean, I, I think that when you, when you look at the national perspective of Trump and his political team, I would say this is authoritarianism at its finest. You know, if you can't win with the rules that are currently at play, you change the rules.

So, you look in Texas, we're going to change the rules mid-cycle so we can, you know, get five additional seats, which the Trump administration is trying to do. We're going to change the way that individuals have the ability to vote, which Trump and his team is trying to do.

I mean, we're going to put in a number of executive orders. We're going to use, you know, we're going to cut, you know, systems, you know, like Medicaid and making it much more difficult. So, you know, people believe that government is not effective.

So I mean, this is a playbook to try to continue to empower the Trump administration, and I think it's actually very dangerous.

COLE: I don't ... the tactics have been announced they're going to work with Congress because Reginald's right, Article 1, Section 4 of the Constitution. Along with the 10th Amendment, in states' rights ... these are all matters left mainly to the states. There are a few exceptions about, about congressional elections in, in federal statute in the Constitution, but it's left to the states of, of when, where —

BRODIE: Time, place and manner, right? 

COLE: Time, place and manner, that's in the Constitution of how, of how it goes. So they're now talking, we're gonna work with Congress when they come back. Karoline Leavitt said yesterday, "We're going to work with our friends up on Capitol Hill to get it done." They got to get 60 in the Senate. That's not happening, OK?

So then they go to their friendly statehouses. They got a friendly statehouse here in Arizona. They may get it through both houses, but we have a Democrat governor here. ... So there are a lot of hurdles plus the legal side that Reginald alluded to.

BRODIE: So that kind of raises the question, Doug, and you alluded to this. If the way that Arizona votes, it sounds like it's not likely to change as long as at least as it relates to mail-in ballots. So what kind of effect will that have if especially Republican voters are hearing the leader of their party saying, “This is rigged, it's full of fraud, don't use it. I'm trying to get rid of it.” Like, does that, does that have the effect, as Reginald suggested, of maybe having a 2020 effect where Democrats do really well?

COLE: Yeah, well, it we'll see. But you can be guaranteed that all this has been pulled, researched, from the redistricting to: How do we suppress? And I think, I think my friend here is correct, because, you know, midterms do not historically and in 2018, and Trump's first term midterm turned out the same way, don't turn out well for whoever's in charge of Congress and the White House. So I think what these type of tactics are going to continue.

I think it has, you know, it's, it has the danger of suppressing Republican votes also, you know, because, because of the uncertainty. “Well, am I supposed to vote early or I'm not supposed to vote early? You know, I was told in 2020 and 2022 not to, but I was told in 2024, get a vote early.” You know, it's, it's very confusing to the voter.

BRODIE: Well, so Reginald, this seems like in theory it could be good news for Democrats, but at the same time, we've seen here in Arizona and around the country, the numbers of people who are registered as Democrats is sure not going up.

BOLDING: Well, you know, I would say this: ... Democrats, you know, no matter if it seems like it's more, you know, politically expedient to have Republicans, you know, choose not to drop their ballots in the mail, that's that's their own choice. As far as changing the rules for everyone — which would have the effect of suppressing the vote for individuals who live in tribal communities, who may have, you know, difficulties making it down to the poll. That's something that Democrats don't want to see happen at all, you know, we want to keep mail-in voting in place.

We do believe that, you know, even, you know, as you see, you know, party registrations on both sides, you know, fluctuate and folks are moving to unaffiliated voters. We want to make sure that people have the ability to mail in their ballots. We believe that a vote that's in the ballot is better than one that's not.

The Show

Arizona has voted by mail for 30 years. Trump wants to end that nationwide

Camryn Sanchez, Lauren Gilger

President Donald Trump says he plans to eliminate the way that the vast majority of Arizonans vote: by mail. KJZZ's Camryn Sanchez joined The Show to talk about the long history of mail-in voting in Arizona.

Listen • 6:08