This nonprofit CEO says a government shutdown would hurt the most vulnerable Arizonans

The federal government is on the verge of a potential shutdown. If Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate — along with President Donald Trump — can’t come to an agreement on how to fund the government, it’ll shut down at midnight Tuesday.

The sides are expected to meet Monday at the White House in an effort to avoid that. But if they can’t, it could have big implications for Arizonans — especially those who rely on social safety-net programs.

January Contreras, president and CEO of Children’s Action Alliance, joins The Show to talk more about it.

Full conversation

BRODIE: So, what are you most concerned about?

CONTRERAS: What we're most concerned about is the unpredictability of the situation that exists right now. I mean, we've had shutdowns before. We know what that's like. When they go longer, they cause more pain and inconvenience and struggle for folks that interact with federal services.

So, you know, we're always going to be hopeful that that this doesn't have huge impacts, but you know, it's important to remember if it's a mandatory spending program — a Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security — these are programs and services that should not be impacted if the federal government were to enter into a shutdown.

Now, you can see that it may be more of a bare-bones operation. You know, you could have effects that way, but then there are other programs that we have a lot of concern about. Will they be able to meet any needs, as we move into Oct. 1?

BRODIE: Well, so yeah, I'm curious about what, what programs you're concerned about, maybe either not being able to meet any needs, or B, as you say, some might stay open but not be fully staffed, not operating at full capacity.

CONTRERAS: Well, one example ... we look at the anti-hunger programs, right? These are programs that for decades have enjoyed bipartisan support in the federal government. But WIC is an example. WIC is the Women Infant Children's program. This is designed to help our most vulnerable not go hungry. So new moms, it could be a new dad if he's a primary caregiver, infants, toddlers, children up to age 5. I mean, we've been able to say, in a bipartisan basis, "We want to not allow for these vulnerable folks to go hungry."

But this is a program that is at risk, and Oct. 1, when it comes forward, each state may be able to deal with it differently if they have the resources, but we don't know what that would look like. It's certainly at risk.

BRODIE: I also wonder, given what we have been hearing about the budget situation in Arizona, it doesn't sound like there's a whole lot of extra money to make up for programs that could be affected by a federal government shutdown. I'm wondering if you have heard anything about that.

CONTRERAS: Well, what we know is we do have some folks in the Legislature who really, you know, are committed to trying to create less services come through government. We've heard Gov. Hobbs say, look, these are gaping holes. If the federal government removes these very, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars from the state budget, that of course it's very hard to replace those funds.

And so it does leave us in a vulnerable position when there's such unpredictability at the federal level. Will these programs that people can rely on in their worst moments or in their tough moments, will they be able to stay open? And that causes a lot of, of uncertainty, it causes a lot of nervousness and anxiety.

BRODIE: We've heard from the, the White House that if the federal government shuts down, that they are preparing for mass firings, mass layoffs, which is a different approach than what the executive has done in many prior shutdowns, which is to try to sort of have a broad viewpoint on what is considered essential. Like make sure that services continue for for Americans and, and, you know, in this case, Arizonans.

Are you nervous that if the government shuts down at midnight Tuesday into Wednesday that their programs that are just going to go away because the Trump administration fires all the people and closes the programs?

CONTRERAS: Well, let me start by saying we've unfortunately had some of those experiences ever since January 2025, right? We've had grants just stopped. We've had money pulled from states, from cities, from counties that have made them stop programs, made them lay off people. So, you know, we feel the weight of this, especially in the nonprofit sector and in local governments.

But when you're talking about this, you know, this sort of threat of firing people instead of only furloughing, right? This is designed to be — nobody wants a federal shutdown, normally. But there's two things that are very different.

The one you just raised, which is not only did the federal agencies directed to create furlough plans, they were created, they were directed to create these termination plans. And also normally the federal agencies have their potential shutdown plans up on their websites. Why? Because they know millions of Americans are relying on their programs —

BRODIE: So people can see what's what would happen in the event of a shutdown —

CONTRERAS: Absolutely. Whether that's a farmer in Iowa or it's someone who has, you know, affordable housing voucher in Phoenix. And so those two things make this a very unusual approach. And I'll say, you know, we have a budget director in the federal government right now who has said they want to bring trauma to federal employees, that's also very unusual.

I mean, and so there's just more unpredictability, more uncertainty — perhaps by design. And my understanding is — and I served as an assistant secretary with bipartisan support from the U.S. Senate — my understanding is there are there's not additional authority in fact to terminate federal employees.

But this last nine months has seen, you know, a lot of litigation because decisions are being made. The executive branch has said, you know, "Look, we're the executive branch, we have, we get to make these decisions." And then the checks and balances is coming not so much from Congress but through the courts about, you know, what is legal and what isn't.