KJZZ Friday NewsCap: In 3-way GOP primary for governor, fundraising — not Trump — could be the key

KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.

To talk about the newest entrant into the race for governor, the impact of the federal government shutdown and more, The Show joined Barrett Marson of Marson Media and Gaelle Esposito of Creosote Partners.

Conversation highlights

MARK BRODIE: David Schweikert says he's kind of fed up with Congress and wants to, he thinks that Arizona is "still salvageable," in his words. I'm paraphrasing there, so he's getting into the GOP race for governor.

We'd never want to get into other people's heads, but I'm curious, in your mind, what sort of went into the calculation of him, leaving a seat that he's won reasonably handily — despite the fact that people have been saying that he's vulnerable for many, many cycles — leaving that seat to run for governor?

BARRETT MARSON: First, I want to say happy 5786 to everyone who celebrates. It's gonna be a good year, I think.

But, you know, first of all, you talk about Schweikert winning handily and, you know, I think 3 points, he won a couple points last year, and even a slimmer margin two years earlier against Jevin Hodge.

You know ... the Independent Redistricting Commission made it a very, very competitive, I mean, really one of the most competitive districts in the country. … You've got sort of that dynamic, and, you know, he's been there 16 years. The Republican Party in Congress has kind of left him, you know. He is an old-school fiscal conservative in a time when that doesn't, those people don't have a lot of sway in Congress anymore.

So, I think he just kind of wants to come home, and what better way to come home than to, you know, run for governor and see what can happen in a three-way primary.

BRODIE: Gaelle, do you see this in some ways as an indictment of Congress? Like we talk a lot about when state legislators decide to leave the Legislature. How, you know, they can't get anything done and it's not an enjoyable environment. It's just kind of a toxic place down there. Is Schweiker kind of saying that about Congress here?

GAELLE ESPOSITO: I think it's an indictment of his polling numbers. I think he saw that he was going to lose this competitive district and wanted an eject button for it, and found that the governor's race would give him a way to do that.

You know, David Schweikert has been a creature of Congress, as you said, for a very long time. He's been very comfortable there. I don't think the Republican Party has left him. He's supported everything Donald Trump is doing, down the line.

MARSON: Well, I will say he, remember he fell asleep during the “Big Beautiful Bill.” He didn't vote on it.

ESPOSITO: He said he would have voted for it had he, had he been there.

MARSON: Oh, I would have voted for it too if only the residents had elected me as well, right? Yes, great. ... [LAUGHS] ... But you know what, those that show up actually get to vote, so.

ESPOSITO: Yeah, that's truly fascinating that he'd really want to have his cake and eat it too in the worst sort of way with that vote and missing it. He's just had the Trump administration's back the whole way. So I can't imagine that he was going to win that competitive district in this environment.

MARSON: You know, I'm not sure that he would have won, obviously. It is a very competitive district, and Democrats see that as a huge opportunity. And, you know, look, it's a year and a month away from Election Day.

BRODIE: Less than that for the primary.

MARSON: Less than that for the primary. That's an eternity in Donald Trump's era, right? I mean, so we don't know what the economy will look like. We don't know what — we don't know if we'll still be here. I mean, we don't know.

BRODIE: You just said it's gonna be a good year.

[LAUGHS]

MARSON: Oh yeah, that's right. Well, you know.

BRODIE: Flip-flopping already.

[LAUGHS]

Well, so let me, let's get to, we'll get to CD1 in a minute, but I want to ask you, Barrett, about the GOP primary because of course, Andy Biggs and Karrin Taylor Robson are already running in the GOP primary for governor. Both have gotten Donald Trump's endorsement.

It sounds like Schweikert maybe at least is saying he's OK without it. Maybe he's saying that because he doesn't think he's going to get it. Even though, as Gaelle pointed out, he has voted with the administration a pretty high percentage of the time.

How do you see his entrance into the race shaking this up, three as opposed to two?

MARSON: Look, in a three-way race, anything can happen. But at the same time, I do believe that Schweikert will pull a little bit from Andy Biggs — a little bit more from Andy Biggs than, say, Karrin Taylor Robson. And I think she has probably an easier path to the nomination now because of this.

I don't know that David Schweikert can be competitive, really. But I do think he can play a little bit of a spoiler to Andy Biggs.

You know, one of the things about Schweikert is, he's never been a huge fund — much like Andy Biggs — he's not, even though he's in a competitive district, he's never been a massive fundraiser, and I think that is going to really show now. He's a lame duck in Congress, and, you know, he's got to spend a lot of time here, rather than in D.C., campaigning, and I'm not sure that he'll do so well in this race.

I don't think he will, but, again, anything can kind of happen in a year, and anything can happen in a three-way primary.

BRODIE: Gaelle, how do you, how do you see this primary shaking out?

ESPOSITO: Yeah, I don't even know if he'll make it to the primary. I, I kind of view this as him auditioning for the lieutenant governor's position for whoever makes it through in the end.

MARSON: Well, this would be a horrendous way to audition for that, that's — I think that would be terrible.

BRODIE: By running against the people who might be picking.

MARSON: I believe that he'll be an attack dog, certainly against Andy Biggs. And he's already sort of made some negative comments, not that obviously, you know, Kamala Harris attacked Joe Biden, George H.W. Bush attacked Ronald Reagan. ... Sometimes, you know, people see the bigger point in election, but I don't know that David Schweikert would bring anything to the table as lieutenant governor. So I don't think it's that.

BRODIE: Gaelle, do you think that he's getting in this with the expectation that he's not going to make it through the primary?

ESPOSITO: I think he just needed a way out to save face of not having to go through another grueling congressional campaign that everything was telling him he was going to lose. And I think, you know, taking a long-shot bid for governor, maybe striking for that second spot if he's lucky, is the best outcome for him.

BRODIE: What would preclude him, do you think, from making it to the primary?

ESPOSITO: You know, I think once again if he's looking at the polling numbers and they aren't looking that good, he could pull a Matt Salmon and try to step out to boost a candidate that, you know, might give him something in exchange.

BRODIE: OK, so let's assume for sake of argument — not saying that you are wrong — but let's say for the sake of argument that you are wrong and he is on the ballot. So you have the three of them. How do you think his entrance affects the other two candidates and maybe the contours of the race?

ESPOSITO: Yeah, I don't know that Barrett's wrong here, that he might pull more from Andy Biggs. But I think the real question is, you know, who is his constituency here in this race, right?

You know, he doesn't have Donald Trump's endorsement yet. Somehow the people who don't support Donald Trump are, are all lining up behind Karrin Taylor Robson as well. You know, I just don't know who he thinks is going to have his back.

MARSON: Yeah, again, remember, he has always been this fiscal conservative, and remember, he actually is a founding member of the Freedom Caucus. And so I think he can trumpet that, that connection, much the same way that Andy Biggs can, right? And so, again, you know, Andy Biggs used to be a fiscal conservative —

BRODIE: And was chair of the Freedom Caucus for awhile.

MARSON: ... And, I think they both are occupying a little bit of the same lane. One has a Donald Trump endorsement, one doesn't. But hey, you know, Donald Trump hands out endorsements. I mean ... maybe, you know, he'll call up Schweikert one day and, “I endorse you, too. He can't lose.”

BRODIE: Is there anything to be said for the timing of this, Barrett, in the sense that both Biggs and Robson have been campaigning for a while now, and Schweiker is just getting in? Does that matter at all?

MARSON: No, because the campaign started way earlier than normal. And so, this is the summertime, now we're technically, I think in fall, though it's 100 degrees. You know, summertime is kind of when you would see candidates start, start up. We just saw it much earlier, in our never ending campaign cycles.

So I, I think this is, the timing is fine, and it's not like it's, you know, January or February of next year. But no, there's plenty of time for him to go around the state, go to the LD meetings, and start fundraising, which is, again, the most important part.

And I mean, if he's only gonna bring in $300,000, $400,000, $500,000 a quarter, then I'm not sure what the rationale for him to stay in. I mean, much like, again, Andy Biggs is only bringing in $400,000, and that's a record high for him. And he's gonna need a lot more money than that.

BRODIE: Gaelle, what does this mean do you think for Gov. [Katie] Hobbs?

ESPOSITO: I think Gov. Hobbs is in a really good position right now. Speaking of money, I, you know, she continues to break fundraising records. I think you're going to see her continue to widen the gap between these candidates as they try to out extreme one another, compete for Donald Trump's affection. Just continue to go down a worse and worse path for the Arizona electorate, and so I think Gov. Hobbs is in a really prime position for reelection.