Stephen Richer: Trump could squander Republicans' voter registration lead in Arizona

Nationally, the upcoming 2026 midterm elections are looking bleak for Republicans. Recent elections and polling show the GOP could be in for a tough time when voters show up to the polls in November.

Here in Arizona though, Republicans have only grown their voter registration advantage heading into the midterms. In November 2020, there were 130,000 more Republicans than Democrats in Arizona. Today, that lead is up to 330,000 voters.

But Stephen Richer said he still thinks it’s Democrats who have the headwinds even in Arizona this year. Richer is a former Maricopa County recorder. Today, he’s an opinion contributor to the Arizona Republic as well as a lecturer at the Harvard Kennedy School.

Richer joined The Show to talk more about his latest op-ed for the paper.

Full conversation

LAUREN GILGER: So Republicans have quite the voter registration advantage here in Arizona, and it’s only gotten bigger. Why do you think it’s Democrats who might end up taking the lead in Arizona in November, though?

STEPHEN RICHER: Yeah, I don’t want to skip over that headline because for an allegedly purple state, we’re more and more red. And I think the Republicans are to be commended for the ground game that has registered a really an impressive number of voters over the last few years. So that’s going to be structurally very difficult for Democrats to contest with in the future.

But regarding the 2026 midterm elections, as you mentioned, races throughout the country for the past year and a half have heavily favored the Democratic candidates. Districts that President Trump won in 2024 are going by significant numbers to Democrats. Democrats won the governor’s race in both New Jersey and in Virginia by margins that were much larger than expected.

And then here locally, all the candidates who are running in the most competitive, most high profile races — attorney general, governor, secretary of state — they have incumbents who are Democrats. And so I think that in years to their advantage as well.

And then the biggest thing on the map is people are feeling pretty down about President [Donald] Trump right now.

His approval ratings are quite low. And the issues that he’s talking about — whether it’s Greenland, whether it’s ICE — aren’t the issues that Americans really trust him for. They voted him in based off of kitchen table issues and securing the border. And now when they see things like what’s going on in Minneapolis or hearing about Venezuela, they’re less enamored with the president.

GILGER: Yeah, we’re definitely seeing low polling numbers there, especially when it comes to ICE. But President Trump is not on the ballot in November. Do you think that changes things?

RICHER: President Trump isn’t on the ballot, which in and of itself is a bit problematic for Republicans these days, because unlike maybe the Republican Party of old, — which tended to be more educated, more affluent voters who showed up in every election — you have a lot of people who are part of this new Trump coalition who really care about Donald Trump, but don’t care about the rest of the party all that much.

And so they might not turn up. And yes, I do think that for the Dems, they really care about President Trump and they want to push back against him. And even though he’s not on the ballot, I think many Dems realize that if they take control of either the United States House or the United States Senate, they’ll be able to exert a lot more oversight on the president.

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GILGER: Right. So it’s also about, like, who shows up to vote. You’re talking about these high propensity voters. And you write that it has changed even in the last just couple of presidential elections. Democrats are now the ones who are the affluent, educated folks who turn out to vote more often?

RICHER: It’s amazing, but I think in many ways Trump has re-formed the Republican Party into the working class party. And the Democrats get the majority of voters who are making over $100,000 a year. And that’s true not just at the presidential level, but it was true in 2022 of the gubernatorial election between Katie Hobbs and Kari Lake.

Katie Hobbs, Gov. Hobbs won the majority of people in Arizona who make over $100,000. And those people, yes, tend to show up and vote in midterm elections at a higher rate than people who make less than that.

GILGER: At the same time, you’re talking about this really massive and growing GOP voter registration advantage. You write that it’s now 7.6%. It’s larger than any presidential cycle registration margin in recent state history. So essentially, are you looking for Republicans who you think will vote Democratic or split the ticket?

RICHER: Again, that’s the elephant in the room — pun intended— is that yes, Republicans have a very significant now and growingly significant registration advantage. So what will have to happen for Democrats to win?

One: Of the registered Democrats, a higher percentage will need to show up and vote than of the registered Republicans. Two: You’ll need to have some crossover registered Republicans who vote for Democrats, but that doesn’t happen all that often.

And then three: You’ll need to clean up with the very sizable percentage of Arizonans who are registered as no party declared or independent. That’s about 34% of the state.

GILGER: And always a big factor in Arizona, those independents or no party affiliated voters that sometimes in the history of Arizona voter registration been the biggest party in the state, the non-party.

RICHER: That’s right. And I think the winning coalition for Katie Hobbs will have to look similar to her winning coalition in 2022. The good news for her is that she’s an incumbent, and she’s had three and a half years so far to show what she’s about, to establish her brand, I think develop relationships with more Arizona businesses that could help.

And at the same time, I don’t think that she’s pissed off anyone in her base. And so I think that from that standpoint, she’s stronger in a stronger position than she was three and a half years ago.

GILGER: And three and a half years ago, we should say, we saw some incredibly tight races, including the governor’s race. Do you anticipate seeing that again?

RICHER: For better or for worse, I think that’s going to be Arizona’s fate for at least the next few years. And I think that’ll be true, especially with respect to the attorney general race and the governor’s race. But look, based off of these voter registration statistics, Republicans are in the position. They’ve done the groundwork to win races by 5%-plus or more.

What they need is they need the, the national sentiment to pick up, they need the economy to be strong, and they need President Trump to focus on the issues that those everyday Arizonans, those everyday Americans care about and maybe clean up a bit on things like ICE in Minneapolis and whether or not Greenland’s important.