After years of record-hot summers, are record-hot winters next for Arizona?

We’re used to record hot summers these days in Phoenix, but this winter has got us all thinking about a new kind of heat record: record hot winters.

That’s because this has been the hottest winter ever in Phoenix. And if you went outside this weekend, you’d know it.

Phoenix broke a record on Saturday and Sunday, hitting 92 and 93 degrees, respectively. That’s about 20 degrees above normal.

Science

This has been Phoenix's hottest winter on record

Katherine Davis-Young

La Niña climate patterns bring warmer, drier winters to the Southwest every few years. But climate change exacerbated this year’s La Niña conditions.

Listen • 0:49

It’s sparking a whole lot of griping from longtime Arizonans who are used to pretty perfect weather all winter long — a trade-off for our increasingly nasty summers. But is this our new normal?

The Arizona Republic’s Ray Stern joined The Show to talk more about it.

Full conversation

LAUREN GILGER: Good morning, Ray. Thanks for coming in.

RAY STERN: Good morning.

GILGER: So first, just tell us like what you've been thinking as we've been watching these record temperatures stack up all winter. What's your take here?

STERN: My take is that it's so nice out. I mean, honestly, I'm not a hater of the heat. As you know, I love the heat. Certainly, it's one of those things that concerns you, you know, like when it doesn't rain here sometimes for four months in a row. You know, when you see this level of heat in the winter in February, it definitely reminds you that things are changing. Things are not like they used to be.

I came to Arizona with my parents. They moved me here in 1977. And I will never forget, we crossed the border into Arizona and came into Phoenix on July Fourth in 1977. And one of the things that I remember, there was heat that I had never experienced before. It was intense. And we lived in a trailer park for the first week while my parents looked for an apartment. And it didn't have an air conditioner. So I had that first week here, knowing what it was like to sleep with these very intense highs, which were much lower back then because of climate change now. But in Phoenix, it's still all about the lows.

So, although obviously I've read the news, we did have record heat here. It was definitely warm in the daytime when I hiked Camelback and Piestewa yesterday. I noticed that it was warm. But the mornings were just beautiful. So really it comes back to the lows like we focus on in the summer. And when you think about how was today, and it's like, it was a little bit warm in the middle of the afternoon. Other than that, it was a perfect day.

GILGER: OK. OK, I like that. Phoenix is all about the lows. We can focus on the good things. [LAUGHS]

STERN: Exactly. ... You kinda have to.

GILGER: OK, so we're here to talk about this question of like, is this the new normal, right? Like, should we expect record hot winters every winter like we expect record hot summers every summer now, basically, because of climate change? So I reached out to ASU meteorologist and extreme weather expert, Randy Cervany, about this. He's been on the show many times to talk about the heat. And he told me basically yes and no. He says with climate change, the frequency is what changes. So we'll have more frequent hot winters like this one, less frequent colder winters.

But it doesn't necessarily mean those kind of winters that we are used to are gone forever. They're just going to be less common. So my question, Ray, is what does this do to our quality of life? Like what does it do to the selling point that we've all had forever that we have ... more than half the year? It's just gorgeous here.

STERN: Right. I think it would have to get a lot, lot worse before it would actually affect the quality of life so much that people would really reconsider living here or reconsider moving here. And that's just because it's still not that hot and it's much, much better than where a lot of people are coming from. So yes, it's definitely hotter than when I first moved here. You can tell that, obviously. Even if you didn't see all of the hype about climate change, you would just know that, yes, you know, for example, when we had those two years in a row where there were 55 days of 110-plus, rather than what is normal at 35 days, that's something you tend to notice.

And of course, the people that are very vulnerable on the street or in their homes without air conditioning are, you know, risking their lives sometimes and dying at numbers that, you know, we just hate to see. So then the question becomes, yeah, will this place become unlivable at some point? The answer is that a lot of people in the country already think that it's a hellscape that's completely uninhabitable for human life.

GILGER: We definitely hear that every year. And we've had you on the show to talk about that question, right? Like, will Phoenix eventually become unlivable as we're watching these temperatures go up? Do you think there's a tipping point? Like, is the tipping point maybe that we're looking at not 115-degree-day summers that are a tipping point, but 90-degree winters?

STERN: As long as those lows stay really nice. I mean, if it changed to that it was 90 or 100 in January and February, I don't know. I think that would be a while before that happens. This trend that we are suddenly getting into this hotter winter is still quite bearable. So no, I don't think that it's going to really change our lifestyle too much. We're all so dependent on air conditioning right now. This place would not exist if it wasn't for air conditioning the way it does. We know that. And it's hot elsewhere in the country, too.

And when you look at the other economic and sort of societal factors, for instance, who knew that we would have a president who would talk about Canada as if it was, you know, Turkmenistan or something like that? And so it's suddenly causing And apparently there was a real effect where people from Canada are not coming here. Things like jobs, of course. And of course, coming back to water. If we had some water apocalypse, and if you listen to some people like Tom Buschatzke at the Arizona Department of Water, there's a risk potentially that, for example, the CAP canal could actually run dry at some point. ...

GILGER: Right, if the Colorado River deal doesn't go the way he wants it to.

STERN: ... Exactly. And so if something like that happened, Even that wouldn't cause people to die of thirst here in Phoenix. But it would cause a ripple effect in the minds of people that would make them think it's maybe not a great investment to either move here or if you're a home builder, maybe you don't want to invest in a lot of new homes. So things like that could be sort of an economic apocalypse for us. But a little bit of extra heat in the winter, you know, we can complain about it a little bit, but I don't think it's going to change much.

GILGER: OK, so I can keep complaining about it. [LAUGHS]

STERN: You can absolutely keep complaining about it.

GILGER: Right, but you're saying like you think you'd have to be multiple factors here that would have to add up to really get us to a point where people would say, "No, we should not keep building and investing and moving to Phoenix."

STERN: Right, absolutely. And it's really. all about the economy. And so if the water, for example, problem affects things like the chip plants and things like that, so that affects our jobs and people couldn't find the jobs that they needed to hear, that would affect us more than the environment, I would say. As long as there continues to be a good, healthy economy here, I think people will move here, even if it got much hotter, I would say. Because, again, we still have our climate-controlled boxes that we can drive around and live in.

So I just want to get a little bit nerdy here, and it kind of reminds me of the story of "Dune," OK? I love the book. I love the original movie. The new ones, they're OK, too. But one thing a lot of people kind of want to compare Dune, Planet Dune to Phoenix, because sometimes it feels like, you know, this is kind of a weird and uninhabitable heat sink. But people live on Dune, this fictional planet, because there's a reason to. There's an economy there. The spice is there. So you've got to live there to have the spice. And people live in still suits there, which are these futuristic suits that prepares you to live in this heat.

So I guess I think that even if it got much, much hotter here, if there was a reason for people to live here, they would continue to live here. The Hohokam lived here for almost 1,000 years because there's good water, there's good agriculture here. Even though it's super hot and they didn't have air conditioning, they lived here for centuries. And so I think the question is, what will be the reason to want to live here in the future? And if there is a reason, then we'll wear still suits if we have to.

GILGER: If we have to. [LAUGHS]

STERN: Hopefully not.

GILGER: Hopefully not. All right, that is longtime Arizona reporter now with the Arizona Republic, Ray Stern. Ray, thank you so much for coming in. You made me feel better about this. I appreciate it.

STERN: Oh, good. Thanks.