BRODIE: Anyone who's filled up their gas tanks lately or even just driven by a gas station has seen gas prices are on the rise in Arizona. AAA Arizona says on average a gallon of regular unleaded gas costs about $3.86 today. That's up almost 80 cents from last month and up more than 50 cents since just last week.
The average price in Maricopa County is above $4 a gallon today. With me now to explain why is Doug Johnson with AAA Mountain West Group. Doug, good morning.
JOHNSON: Hey, thanks for having me.
BRODIE: So there's been a lot of talk about the impact of the war with Iran and its impact on the oil supply. Is that most of what's going on? Is that all that's going on? Is it just a part of what's going on here?
JOHNSON: It's pretty much a lot of what's going on. There's also the switch that we see seasonally to go from winter-blend gasoline over to summer-blend gasoline. Winter blend gasoline is cheaper to produce, so it costs you less at the pump. But there's more additives in the summer blend, so it's more expensive.
And that is happening right now. Really bad timing. There's also several refineries that are shutting down in California. Phillips Carson 66 shut down late last year, and I think it was switching over to jet fuel. And then up in the Bay Area, we have Valero Benicia shutting down in April. So just bad timing all around for the West Coast.
BRODIE: You referenced the summer blend. And it's not unusual for, you know, Arizona drivers, Phoenix drivers especially, to see gas prices go up a little bit this time of year. But it seems pretty atypical for them to go up, for example, 50 cents a week.
JOHNSON: Yeah, no, this is pretty much something we only see during conflicts in the Middle East. And, again, what's going on is, of course, the US doesn't get its oil from Iran, but China and India do. So when they're not getting their oil from Iran, they're going to have to go to the same sources that we do to get our oil.
And then, of course, everything that's going on with the Strait of Hormuz, a lot of those Persian Gulf countries that we do get our oil from may not be able to send it out. It's really causing a backup of oil supply that's just not reaching the United States.
BRODIE: How — I'm not sure if fragile is the right word here, but I will use it. How fragile is the supply chain here? Given that there are some tankers that are sort of backed up in the Strait of Hormuz, how much of a downstream impact does that have on us here in the Valley?
JOHNSON: Oh, I mean, you're seeing it in the price at the pump. Arizona in the last week, we've gone up 53 cents. And Arizona is actually ranking among the top states for recent weekly price increases. It's in the top five alongside other states like Indiana and Ohio. So it's pretty fragile. You know, any sort of conflict in the Middle East, it does have an impact.
The last time we saw the increase that go up this much in a week, I think it went up about 11 cents back in 2022 over — just overnight. And that is, of course, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
So it's not unheard of. We've seen similar jumps happening when, you know, Operation Desert Storm took place in the early '90s. But, you know, this is a pretty big jump that we haven't seen in a long time.
BRODIE: Well, you mentioned sort of the perfect storm of events causing it. We're also, of course, into the time of spring break, when a lot of people tend to drive out of town to go on vacation for a period of time. What are you seeing in terms of how this might be affecting people's travel choices?
JOHNSON: Absolutely, it's supply and demand. And of course, demand goes up when the weather gets nicer. All the kids are off school for spring break. So some people we're hearing some folks are canceling. Some folks are just looking to stay closer to home, sort of staycation, rather than driving all the way across state lines or taking international trips.
But we do have some advice for our AAA members. If you are trying to save gas, plan your trip, make things more fuel efficient by planning your routes out. If you're going to the grocery store and then the pharmacy and then somewhere else — back to school — make sure you're doing that in one trip and that you're tracking the shortest distance to do it.
Another thing we do tell our members is to avoid speeding. You know, fuel economy peaks at around 50 mph on most cars, and then it drops off as speed increases. So driving the recommended speed limit can actually increase your fuel economy between 7% and 14%.
This goes without saying, but avoid idling, avoid just sitting in your car, having your air conditioning running. It may be sort of warm in Arizona, but you could probably just roll down the window. Try and wait in the coffee shop or where you're going, don't wait in your car.
And another big thing I think people don't realize is you got to check your tire pressure, especially as we're getting to hotter weather. When you have improper tire pressure, it has more friction with your tire if it's lower to the ground. So you can fill up your tires and get less friction, and it's easier then to move your car and you use less gas to drive around.
BRODIE: Yeah. Understanding that crystal balls are often cloudy — especially when it comes to this — do you have any kind of indication as to how high prices might get in the Phoenix area?
JOHNSON: You know, we really don't have a crystal ball. We try not to make predictions. In fact, right before this conflict started, we were reporting that gas prices were lower this time this year than they were at this time last year. So we really just at AAA, we don't try to predict the future.
BRODIE: Is it safe to say, though, that the longer that this conflict in the Middle East goes on, the less chance of prices coming down precipitously will happen?
JOHNSON: Absolutely. I mean, it's all about supply. If we're not getting the same amount of supply and the demand keeps going up, it will definitely cause prices to increase. And especially going on with what's going on with the Strait of Hormuz. If they don't get that oil moving in time, I know there's some alternative routes they're looking into, but if it's slowed down there, it will cause prices to go up.
BRODIE: Yeah. Interesting. All right. That is Doug Johnson with AAA Mountain West Group. Doug, thanks for your insights. I appreciate it.
JOHNSON: Yeah, thanks for having me.
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