KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
Marcus Dell’Artino of First Strategic and former state House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding joined The Show to talk about the future of state budget talks, what’s next for the Arizona Independent Party and more.
Conversation highlights
MARK BRODIE: So Marcus, what’s going on with the state budget? I mean, it’s a little early to really have serious negotiations, I think, even in the end of March.
But for the governor to say we’re done for now, is this a problem?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: No. We always have a blowup. And I think Reggie would probably back me up on that. Sometimes they’re bigger than not. But I would call this the first blowup, if not the short term blowup. And I will also confess to you that at least late this week, staff was meeting. And it’s more important, frankly for staff to be meeting than the governor and the speaker and the president.
And so I’m hopeful — I say this more than I want to — but I’m hopeful that we will be on the track to get out at a decent time this year.
BRODIE: It seems like it’s not just personality conflicts with this sort of kerfuffle. There seem like there’s some real policy questions here as well, especially as they relate to Prop. 123.
DELL’ARTINO: Yeah, you’re right. Definitely Prop. 123. But also we’ve got a tax conformity question.
BRODIE: Still haven’t dealt with that, have we?
DELL’ARTINO: And so that’s causing some, some trouble, too. So, you know, I think the Republicans budget starting point is full conformity, which for this year is about $440-450 million. The governor’s proposals modified, I would call it, conformity about $240 million.
And so there is some question in there because when you take into account HR1 — and you remember the federal level, the Big Beautiful Bill, whatever we’re calling it — that has tax implications throughout the country. But specifically here in Arizona with AHCCCS, with SNAP benefits, with a whole host of things.
If you’re out there and you think that we have a big, beautiful budget ahead of us with lots of revenue, that is not the case. And I think we’re going to be looking at some modified cuts and maybe some fund sweeps.
BRODIE: So given some of the policy debates, based on your experience at the Legislature, Reginald, is it notable at all that maybe staffs are meeting but that the principals are saying on one hand you haven’t shown us a budget, you’re wasting time. On the other hand, you’re taking your ball and going home and throwing a temper tantrum. Like, does that matter?
REGINALD BOLDING: Right now what you’re seeing is a little bit of posturing. And I think the principals — the governor, the speaker, the Senate president — they have to posture right now in order to one see what the political dynamics are going to be with other pieces of legislation that are coming down the pike.
Also looking at what’s happening federally, what’s the public sentiment, and then there’s the political calculus. So there are a number of different things outside of just the budget and the numbers themselves that are accelerating or decelerating the process.
I do think that, from the governor’s standpoint, I think that they’re saying, "Hey, this is about transparency. I showed you my cards. Show me yours."
So I think from her, they’re trying to use that as a baseline. And I think that there is a calculus right now that Democrats feel like they’re winning. And I think the governor is going to try to articulate a message that "I can’t get things done at the state Legislature with the budget because we have a Legislature that’s just not willing to work with me."
And I think that may be used politically to try to pick up some seats. We’ll see.
BRODIE: Given the fact that Prop. 123 expired last year, the Legislature and governor have been trying to come up with an agreement for almost two years now, and it seems as though they still haven’t.
Does that give you pause about whether or not they actually can come up with a deal?
BOLDING: This is actually a really, really big deal for long term funding of education right now. I’m actually really concerned about Prop. 123 right now. I think that there was a sweet spot last year to actually get this thing done, but neither side feels like they have to budge. The best way to get the Legislature to actually move is to have a deadline, drop dead deadline.
And that’s when folks start to really move. But I do think with Prop. 123, when you’re looking at these funding proposals, we’re getting kind of late almost to the deadline to even go to the ballot, like a referendum, you know, a proposition, ballot initiative, signature collection.
We’re getting in red hot territory right now.
BRODIE: Marcus, it seems like there are a few different elements at play here when it comes to Prop. 123. You have the fact that 10 years ago it barely passed with pretty much everybody in the political world on board. So even though the Legislature could refer something to the ballot without the governor, it seems like it would be a good idea to have as many of the parties on board and supporting it as possible.
You also, to your point about not a lot of extra revenue. The Legislature backfilled the amount, $300-something million last year. Doesn’t seem going to be able to do that again.
DELL’ARTINO: That’s why I would say it’s in everybody’s best interest to come up with a solution here. And it’s funny, I was down there this week and for insiders to know, the transportation agenda came out in the House of Representatives. It’s about three pages long. Virtually every bill on there had the word appropriation on it for roads and projects throughout the state of Arizona.
And within a couple days of the hearing being set, every one of those appropriation bills had been stricken from the agenda. And so that gives you a quick glance into where we are from a fiscal standpoint. So that money — just so listeners understand this — the Prop. 123 money is now just being taken out of the general fund and then allocated.
What you ultimately at the end of the day want is your general fund to be healthy, big, strong, so you can spend that money on maybe road projects that we just discussed. And so that’s why I say it’s in everybody’s best interest to figure this out.
I am optimistic. And I don’t say that very often, but I will say in this particular circumstance, I think everybody knows it’s in their best interest to figure this out.
BRODIE: You think they get it done this year?
DELL’ARTINO: I do. I think we are going to have probably one of the biggest fiscal conversations the state has been yearning for. And that’s going to be Prop. 123, that’s going to be conformity, that’s going to be the budget, and it all has to happen together.
