Gas prices in Arizona continue to sit above the national average. AAA Arizona says a gallon of regular, unleaded today goes for $4.57 — that’s compared to $4.02 a gallon nationally.
And while prices are down a bit over the past few days, they’re still a dime higher than a month ago, and more than a dollar higher than last year at this time.
That’s led to a lot of conversation about whether this might lead more drivers to think about buying electric vehicles — even as federal tax credits end.
John Heckman, a professor of practice at ASU and co-founder of the Transportation Electrification Activator — a consortium of utilities, cities, businesses and NGOs — joined The Show to talk more.
Full conversation
MARK BRODIE: John, how would you describe the state of the EV market right now in Arizona?
JOHN HECKMAN: I would say that maybe we’re at a plateau point. It’s something that has been growing for quite some time, and I would say the growth is continuing but it’s at a slower pace.
And so electrification, it’s a part of a long transition. We’re talking about something that’s maybe 10-20 years is what it’s going to take, and maybe we’re halfway through that. But it is continuing forward, but it has definitely taken a bit of a step backwards as some of the federal policy changes have happened.
MARK BRODIE: Yeah. How much of this comes down to sort of the economics and subsidies that are available both to buyers, potential buyers of EVs and the rest of the infrastructure?
JOHN HECKMAN: Yeah, I think most vehicle purchases are economic decisions. Very few of us are in a situation where we can just buy something on a whim. And so people are thinking that through pretty carefully.
And there was this federal tax incentive that was bringing a lot of people into the consideration of an EV that perhaps were not thinking about it before that. And so taking that away has changed the calculus.
What you see from the actual statistics of percentage of new car sales that are electric, it did dip a little bit in 2025, but it’s actually starting to come back. It has been growing for the past 10 years plus as far as the percentage that are electric. It is still growing. It’s growing perhaps at a slower rate.
MARK BRODIE: Will that continue do you think absent any other federal or state intervention?
JOHN HECKMAN: I totally think so. Yeah. I think that fundamentally incentives are always interesting, and they can help or hurt depending upon your perspective on it. But really we’re talking about really important products that are a really important part of people’s lives, and they make very careful decisions around those.
And the manufacturers need to make products which are compelling and people really want to buy at prices that they can afford. That’s what’s going to drive this. And really you are seeing that more than anything else. Lots of great models out there, lots of really interesting ones that are coming out, and the prices are actually coming down.
MARK BRODIE: It’s interesting because so many of the headlines have been automakers sort of moving away from EVs and maybe doing more hybrids or maybe more standard internal combustion engines. It sounds like what you’re saying is that there are still new models coming outm and prices are coming down even though there are some automakers who are not following through on maybe the plans they had for EVs.
JOHN HECKMAN: Yeah, I think the narrative changed. Up into 2024, the narrative was that we are doing everything we can to bring out an electrified transportation system as soon as possible. And now we are back more to I guess what I would call a more natural innovation curve, a natural technology curve.
And so you’re still seeing new models, but maybe some of the efforts that the manufacturers were doing to try to keep up with that narrative. People are stepping back and saying “Well, let’s make sure that this is right for us. Let’s make sure that electric vehicles are an option amongst other technologies.” I think that’s where we are right now.
MARK BRODIE: When you say the transition might take 10 or 20 years, what do you think it looks like at the end of that?
JOHN HECKMAN: Underneath this transition, why am I so confident that this is something that is happening? There is a fundamental efficiency that is going on here where if you compare an EV that is powered by renewable energy, solar energy, versus an internal combustion gas car, you’re talking about five to eight times greater efficiency as far as energy that is getting to the wheels of that car.
And efficiency like that — if you go to engineering school, you’ll learn about efficiency — but it translates into money. And so this is a fundamentally lower cost mode of transportation.
Also one that has a lot of upsides: a lot of fun to drive, a really great integration with technology. And so at the end of the day I think that fossil fuel internal combustion will be a very small fraction of the market, perhaps 10 years from now.
MARK BRODIE: But do you think it will still continue to be a percentage of the market, even if it’s a small one?
JOHN HECKMAN: Yeah, I think it will be because they’re incredibly good at what they do. And there’s lots of situations — a lot of, again, the word use case — that are really performed incredibly well by an internal combustion vehicle, and it’ll be quite some time before the electric vehicles can do those. And so I think they will be a part of our economy for a long time.
MARK BRODIE: So, in terms of the transition, you talked about having enough models and having enough price points, I’m wondering about the actual infrastructure, right? Like if you are somebody who needs to charge your vehicle you know at work or you know along the highway because you’re driving from Phoenix to San Diego or LA or something, where are we on that?
JOHN HECKMAN: Yeah, it’s a really important part of it and it’s something that is new compared to a gas-powered transportation system. We had to build out the system of gasoline stations a hundred years ago, and now we’re having to build out that system for charging.
It is being built out quite quickly but it’s still not quickly enough in certain areas. But like in 2025 we had three times as much publicly available chargers installed as 2024. So the pace is increasing substantially.
MARK BRODIE: Do you see a bump in interest in EVs at a time like this when gas is approaching or at $5 a gallon?
JOHN HECKMAN: I think yes. We said vehicles are economic components of our lives, and so when the price of fuel goes, up we think about “Well jeez, how can we deal with this?” Electricity is not for free, but electricity is something that you have some ability to influence.
The price of electricity is really around time and when you’re using that. And that’s something that many people have the ability to influence: when they charge. And that’s a way for you to have a substantially lower cost to fuel an EV compared to an internal combustion car.
MARK BRODIE: Does that calculus change at all though with energy prices continuing to rise as well and concerns about like do we have enough energy for all this stuff we’re doing in this city?
JOHN HECKMAN: Yeah, and if you think about the electrical grid itself, you know transportation electrification is one component of this overall electrification trend. And we also live in a state that is incredibly fast growing. We have a population growth, we got a lot of new industries coming in. And so there is a lot of demand on our electrical grid.
And I think our utilities are very focused on this space. Again the utilities are focused on time, total load but also time of load or time of demand. And so that’s one of the reasons that they think of EVs as a beneficial load is because it’s something that can shift its time.
MARK BRODIE: Is that to say that it really only becomes a problem if people are trying to charge their electric vehicles at like 4 in the afternoon in July?
JOHN HECKMAN: Exactly right. Exactly right. And in fact you already are seeing some changes into the price plans for that.
MARK BRODIE: You mentioned that the Valley and Arizona have kind of hit this plateau where there’s growth but it’s slower growth than what it was before. How does that compare to other places? Like either other cities and states sort of in our neighborhood or the rest of the country?
JOHN HECKMAN: Arizona is first of all, it’s in the top 10 of states in the U.S. as far as the percentage of new cars sold that are electric. And that is for a state, Arizona, that is not what’s called a ZEV state, a zero emission vehicle state. That’s the California law. And so most if not all the other states that are in that top 10 have some very specific regulatory driver that’s pushing in that direction.
So that’s showing that the demand is here. People are asking for that. And so you’re seeing maybe about 10% of new vehicle sales here in Arizona are electric, and that’s a little bit ahead of the national average.
MARK BRODIE: All right. That is John Heckman, a professor of practice at ASU and co-founder of the Transportation Electrification Activator. John, thanks so much.
JOHN HECKMAN: Thanks for having me.
-
The Tempe City Council recently voted to reduce speed limits along seven busy traffic corridors. -
Open parking spaces can be elusive on the streets of downtown Phoenix. Finding one can require a little luck. And you may feel even luckier if you find one with a broken parking meter. But you still have to pay. -
A spokesperson for Waymo says its autonomous vehicle service in the Valley won’t be impacted by a recall of its entire fleet. -
Construction will begin on a freeway interchange project connecting Loop 101 and Interstate 10 in Phoenix. That means closures from Friday until Monday morning. -
A West Valley advocacy group will be hosting an economic development summit on Thursday. This year’s gathering put on by Westmarc will focus on sustainable growth in the West Valley, and includes panels featuring business and elected officials.
