This week at the Arizona Legislature: Which ballot measures will go before voters in November?

State lawmakers are facing a few deadlines as they come back to the Capitol this week.

June 30 is the end of the fiscal year, so they need to have a new budget in place by then — more on that in a moment. Before that, though, on June 24, is the deadline for Arizona voters to submit arguments for and against ballot measures.

But the Legislature hasn’t yet figured out exactly which of the more than 20 proposed referenda still alive at the Capitol will ultimately go before voters in November.

Howard Fischer of Capitol Media Services joined The Show to help sort all of this out.

Full conversation

MARK BRODIE: Good morning, Howie.

HOWARD FISCHER: Good morning. You say every Monday during the legislative session like it’s never going to end.

MARK BRODIE: Well, we’ll get to that, I promise. [LAUGHS] But, Howie, let’s let’s remind listeners there are a few ballot measures already going to voters from the Legislature that they approved last year. But that that mostly will not be the end of it.

HOWARD FISCHER: Oh, definitely not. As you pointed out, there’s probably two dozen measures that are floating around there. I think some are bound to fall off the table, mainly because Republican lawmakers don’t want to send two dozen ballot measures, figuring that if people are confused, they’ll just vote no on everything.

But there are some things that they haven’t been able to get by the governor. For example, the issue of which children gets to use which bathroom based on their gender. Issues of biological boys playing in girls’ sports. These are some of the, you know, the whole social war issues. Then there’s, of course, some issues on voting in terms of ID, whether you need ID, how quickly you’d have to turn in your early ballot. Would it have to be the Friday before so we don’t have a what’s currently a California type situation going on in Arizona?

And then, of course, issues about who gets taxed. Can can somebody can a city keep their photo radar? Do they have to take it to local voters? So, there’s a whole smorgasbord of stuff that folks are interested in.

MARK BRODIE: Howie, do you have a sense of what those conversations are like right now at the Capitol in terms of which of those move forward and which of them don’t?

HOWARD FISCHER: Well, I think first step, and we’ll talk about this, is getting a budget adopted. I think that that’s the recognition that while it’s only June 8, they recognize anything that can go wrong with a budget will go wrong. And while they’re set to meet beginning tomorrow morning and through Friday, you know, what can go wrong — again, you know, there’s millions and millions of ways that.

I think there are some high-profile things that they’d like to put on the ballot to contrast themselves with the governor. Some of those social issues like the issue of of boys in girls’ sports. This is taken on national proportions. And I believe the Republicans think it will drive some of their own voters to to the ballot. The the technical stuff is is a little trickier. In other words, do we want 90 House districts versus 60? And do we want them districts re-divided? There’s all sorts of reasons to suggest you’d get more representative government that way in terms of a House member, but is it too technical for for folks?

There’s a bill to raise legislative salaries. You know, this hasn’t been raised since I guess 1996, and it has to go to the voters. So they’re trying to put something on the ballot to say, "OK, we get increases annually if this is approved, according to the cost of living." Not pointing out that that increase is retroactive to 1996, which would double their $24,000 salary to $48,000. I think there’s a a lot of sentiment in both parties that probably $24,000 doesn’t cut it, but is this the measure they want to put on a ballot? Hard to know. ...

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Voters approved the last raise in 1998, taking the pay from $15,000 to the current $24,000. Since then, there have been several attempts to boost the pay, but all were rejected.

And then there’s a firing squad issue, where right in Arizona, pretty much you have the you you’re put to to death by lethal injection. Some people who have been on death row a long time have the option of gas. And a couple of lawmakers say, well, why not a firing squad? I don’t know, why not?

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MARK BRODIE: Well, Howie, is it possible that that these obviously, you know, this is one of the last issues other than the budget to get dealt with for this year. Can these sort of be used as carrots or maybe, in some cases, sticks to get lawmakers on the budget if they are maybe concerned about voting for certain provisions of it?

HOWARD FISCHER: Oh, there’s always bargaining that goes on at the end. Whether it’s a bill that’s stuck somewhere, you know, we talked, you know, the newscast this morning talked about the question of pets in HOAs. That could become a bargaining chip. You want my vote on the budget? OK, make sure that this bill comes to the floor. You want my vote on the budget? I definitely want to see some new requirements for voter ID on the ballot.

So they all become bargaining chips, and that’s what complicates matters in terms of, you know, you and I could sit and say, "OK, this measure, this measure, this measure make the most sense to put to the voters." But again, has nothing to do with the reality of the bargaining, what leadership thinks will bring out people, what leadership thinks will deter people.

MARK BRODIE: So, Howie, we’ve been talking about the budget. What are you hearing about what it might actually look like? There are some pretty strong lines in the sand between the governor and legislative Republicans.

HOWARD FISCHER: Well, the strongest indication I have is from some legislative leaders who say, "Look, we’ve got the tax cuts, we’re not giving up the tax cuts. They’ll take a slightly different form in in future years, but we’re still going to have the things that everyone wants." In other words, the the higher standard deduction, the no tax on tips, the no tax on overtime.

They are probably going to jettison one thing that’s in there now, which is, for example, the deduction for state and local taxes, because we don’t really have a lot of that, and perhaps substitute out something else in terms of of daycare or something.

There’s a thing in the federal budget that talks about deductions for Social Security, but Arizona doesn’t tax Social Security. So I think that’ll be substituted out for something else. I don’t see any real backing down on that. Now, that’s going to be interesting. You know, they worked all weekend. I know one legislative leader told me that his brain was mush after these all-day sessions. The question becomes, how do you make the numbers work?

Now, short term, I think the numbers can work because there appear to be enough revenues, both cash carried forward from this fiscal year and revenues for next year, to keep these tax cuts going. It’s the longer term, because they’re trying to plan for a three-year budget, that they say, how are we going to make this happen unless we believe that somehow the revenues are going to magically appear from the sky, you know, like manna from heaven?

MARK BRODIE: All right. We’ll see we’ll see if anything falls from the sky in the next little bit. That is Howie Fischer of Capital Media Services. Howie, thanks as always.

HOWARD FISCHER: Have a great morning.