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Submit predictions for Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast contest in this 'super El Niño' year

a cloud with lightning over phoenix
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The monsoon in Arizona lasts from June 15 through Sept. 30.

LAUREN GILGER: The monsoon season officially started on June 15 — as heard from professor Randy Cerveny earlier in The Show, we haven’t seen much rain yet, but we are expecting a "super El Niño" this year. It’s been forming in the Pacific Ocean and scientists say it could bring a whole lot of rain to the Valley this summer.

And, if you want to predict just how much — the University of Arizona’s Institute for Resilience is holding its annual Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast competition right now.

Zack Guido with the institute was on The Show last year to tell us more about it.

ZACH GUIDO: We're just really asking the public for their best estimates of what monsoon precipitation will be like on a monthly level at five cities around the Southwest. It sort of circumnavigates the monsoon region here in the U.S. So that would be Tucson, Phoenix, Flagstaff, Albuquerque and El Paso.

And they make their estimates prior to the start of the month for that month at each site, and they score points based on how accurate their forecasts are, in comparison to what actually fell in terms of rain, and also how risky their forecast is.

LAUREN GILGER: So each win advances your ranking, culminating in someone winning the ultimate bragging rights by the end of the season.

If you want to try your hand at being a forecaster, you can join in online — but the last day to submit your predictions for July is coming up soon, June 30. ...

Monsoon season is almost here and models show a powerful El Niño could bring some much-needed moisture to the Southwest. But Arizona may still have a few months to wait before that rain arrives.
KJZZ's The Show transcripts are created for audience accessibility. Transcripts are created on deadline with the assistance of AI tools and then edited, and may not be in their final form. The authoritative record of KJZZ's programming is the audio segment.
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Lauren Gilger, host of KJZZ's The Show, is an award-winning journalist whose work has impacted communities large and small, exposing injustices and giving a voice to the voiceless and marginalized.