Arizona primary election off to smooth start, many voters using new ID option

Tuesday is primary election day in Arizona — although residents have been casting ballots for several weeks already.

There are a number of competitive primaries up and down the ballot, on both the Republican and Democratic sides. And, Tuesday's primary day comes in the wake of months of conflict between Maricopa County supervisors and its recorder.

Sasha Hupka with Votebeat joined The Show to talk about how things seem to be going so far.

Full conversation

MARK BRODIE: Sasha, good morning.

SASHA HUPKA: Good morning.

MARK BRODIE: How do things seem to be going so far?

SASHA HUPKA: So far, so good. All looks smooth out there. We had some storms throughout the state last night, and there was some concern that that might cause some delays or flooding issues with poll centers today. But generally, everything seems to be opening up all right. Wait times are low across the state, and some really interesting trends that we’re starting to see with voters that I’m excited to talk about.

MARK BRODIE: What are some of the trends that we’re starting to see so far?

SASHA HUPKA: Well, the big thing that’s been very interesting for me to watch is how many voters are taking advantage of and using this new ID verify option for mail ballots. This is something that’s new to the state this year. Republicans in the Legislature pushed for it, and the goal is to speed up election results. But in order for it to work, a lot of voters have to use it.

What we’re seeing, at least in Pima County, what I heard from them this morning, is that a lot of voters are using it. They said that they had had about 150, 160 voters use it in the first hour that polls were open. That’s about 20% of their turnout in the first hour that polls were open, so a significant number. I’m curious to see if that’ll continue throughout the day and if it’ll carry over to other counties across the state, particularly Maricopa.

MARK BRODIE: And am I right that this is an effort to cut down on the dreaded so-called late earlies, people who drop off their early ballots on Election Day?

SASHA HUPKA: Yes, and the entire reason we have these late earlies is because of exactly that. People wait until the last minute, they take their ballot in, they drop it off on Election Day, but then that mail ballot still has to go through signature verification. That process of getting it through the signature verification and then getting it counted can take a while. It can take a few days.

And so this process essentially gives voters an alternative. It is optional, but if they choose, they can show ID and bypass that signature verification process.

MARK BRODIE: Sasha, what are you watching for specifically in Maricopa County today? I referenced the monthslong conflict between the supervisors and recorder. They came to an agreement not that long ago. What are you watching for today to see sort of how that’s all playing out?

SASHA HUPKA: Today I actually just want to see how well can they work together throughout this election. I want to see if there’s any fighting, any issues that sort of rise to a certain level. Those are sort of the things I’m looking for today.

I think the agreement, though, is really interesting because it does not actually apply to today’s primary. This agreement only applies to the general. And so the general election will be the first test of it. That’s a high-stakes thing, particularly in a midterm year.

And so I really have two questions as it relates to this agreement. The first is it puts up this wall between the Recorder’s Office and the Elections Department, agencies that traditionally, historically, have worked pretty closely together to run voting here. And so can Maricopa County, with as many voters as it has, one of the largest voting jurisdictions in the country, can it run a smooth election when there is that wall, and we’re not going to see that hand-in-hand maybe working together that we historically have?

And then second, I’m curious as to what Recorder Justin Heap, who obviously is MAGA-aligned, will do with some of his new-found authority here in that general election.

MARK BRODIE: And so far, you kind of alluded to this, it sounds like you haven’t really heard of any issues in Maricopa County with either confusion over who’s supposed to be doing what or, sometimes printers don’t work, sometimes folks don’t show up and buildings aren’t open on time. You haven’t heard of any issues of that so far?

SASHA HUPKA: No, nothing outside of the ordinary. And I think that’s the thing I’m going to be keeping an eye on throughout the day, is does something become not ordinary? And hopefully, for the sake of all the voters in Maricopa County, hopefully not. Hopefully it goes amazingly smoothly. But I think that I know that internally, just because this agreement resolved the legal battle, that doesn’t mean that it resolves the rest of it, right? The tensions are still pretty high here.

MARK BRODIE: Did election officials have any estimates as to what kind of turnout they were expecting today? How many folks would either show up to turn in their early ballots or show up just to vote today?

SASHA HUPKA: So the turnout story has been really interesting in this election because what we’ve seen so far is that it’s been a somewhat lower turnout year or primary. In particular in comparison to 2022, which in fairness was record-breaking, but still it felt like moving that primary up two weeks. I’ve heard many political strategists on both sides of the aisle remark that the early ballot returns were down from what maybe they were expecting to see.

And so it’ll be interesting to see if there is kind of more of a surge on election day, if voters, this earlier date sort of caught them off guard and so now you’ll see a lot of people going into the polls to drop off and to vote in person on election day, or if this just will end up being a lower turnout election.

MARK BRODIE: Yeah, that’ll be really interesting to watch. And I assume that they were planning for as many people to turn out as possible so they could be prepared for that. Is that a fair assessment?

SASHA HUPKA: Yeah, they generally overestimate to a certain extent the number of people who are going to turn out because they want to make sure that they are prepared. Particularly during those really busy times at the polls, we know that it’s not just a steady stream throughout the day.

Typically, you’ve got some peak times from like 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. when people are going to work and the polls are first opening. You sort of get another little spike around lunch and then toward the end of the day when people who work 9-to-5s are returning home from work. That’s typically when you see things are busiest at the polls, and so usually they over-prepare a little bit to make sure that when those folks are all there trying to vote, they don’t see any type of really crazy lines.

MARK BRODIE: Right. All right, that is Sasha Hupka with Votebeat. Today, of course, primary election day. If you’ve not yet voted, today is your day. Sasha, thanks so much for joining us. I really appreciate it.

SASHA HUPKA: Thank you.

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