Enrollment at all 3 Arizona public universities is down. Here are the reasons why

MARK BRODIE: Arizona’s three public universities are seeing drops in their enrollments.

While the official university census won’t come out for about a month or so, the University of Arizona is expecting a single-digit percentage decline in first-year undergraduate enrollment this semester.

Arizona State University is anticipating about a 1% drop in in-person students, despite saying it’s set a new all-time high in overall enrollment.

Northern Arizona University is expecting about 2,000 fewer students this year than last.

I spoke about this earlier with Chad Sampson, executive director of the Arizona Board of Regents, and he told me there are a number of reasons for the declines in enrollment.

CHAD SAMPSON: As we look at enrollment trends, you want to set a little bit of context. I came to the board 15 years ago, and in that 15 years, we've seen the Arizona public universities more than double their enrollment. So we've actually created in our three universities the equivalent of another University of Arizona and another Northern Arizona University. So we've been growing for a long time.

Across the country, we have started to see the effects of what's called in university land as the enrollment cliff. There are less high school graduates coming out of high school, so there are less traditional 18-year-old students going to college.

So the first aspect is the enrollment cliff, and you couple that with the national dialogue about the value of a four-year degree, and you're starting to see some flattening and even reversing of the enrollment trend.

MARK BRODIE: So it sounds like this is not a surprise to you or to the regents or to the university officials.

CHAD SAMPSON: No, it is not, and indeed the board has been watching this for a long time. Now, if I can say, the most important thing is not enrollment in our institutions, it's the number of degrees, the number of individuals coming out of an Arizona public university with a degree that has value in the marketplace, that makes Arizona stronger, that meets Arizona's economy. So they really focus on that. But one of the inputs is the number of students that are coming.

MARK BRODIE: Is there a sense that this might be a new normal? Is there a sense that this might be sort of a temporary thing, and the schools will continue to grow again at some point in terms of enrollment?

CHAD SAMPSON: So we continually will push new modalities to try and increase enrollment, but this is somewhat of a new normal in that three years ago, the board had the state demographer come and talked about the beginning, roughly this year, that we would see continued fewer students coming out of high school till 2041. So we are seeing that.

Now, Arizona itself has largely missed some of the more impactful effects of this. Back East, the Midwest, even California, you're seeing double digits or triple digits decline in high school student graduates, and that really impacts them there. Now, we do a lot of recruiting out of state. We think that is good for our universities, so that has started to impact us.

MARK BRODIE: So I wanted to ask you about sort of who these students are, because you referenced the universities do a lot of recruiting out of state and internationally as well, both in terms of having a diverse student body, but also, out-of-state tuition, international tuition like that is a pretty big, important thing for the universities' bottom lines.

Is there a sense, or maybe a concern, of if you're going to have fewer students, who those students are that you're losing out on?

CHAD SAMPSON: So first thing to note that we talk about university finances at every board meeting. So six times a year, the universities are presenting on their finances, and I want to let you know that the universities' balance sheets are strong. They are good. We do look at our international enrollment, and we do look at our out-of-state enrollment because they help with the revenue. But it's not just revenue; it also improves the student experience.

MARK BRODIE: How much has the international student issue from the federal government impacted Arizona's universities in terms of whether they can get visas, whether they're allowed in the country, whether they can basically whether they can get here?

CHAD SAMPSON: So it has had an impact. Again, Arizona's public universities have done better than other universities nationally in being able to maintain their students and recruit students, but it has had an impact, and that has to do with federal policy. Our job, we really can't influence that, is to make it as welcoming as we possibly can for all students who want to come to our institutions.

MARK BRODIE: You alluded to sort of the national conversation about the value of a four-year degree, and I wonder what are the conversations among the regents? I would imagine there's a general consensus that there is great value among the regents and the university presidents in getting a four-year degree.

So I guess how do you try to counteract and counterbalance some of the national conversation where there's questions about that?

CHAD SAMPSON: So the regents receive a lot of reporting regarding the economic value of the degree, and overwhelmingly these degrees do do better. If you graduate with a four-year degree, you do better over your life by about $1 million than somebody who just graduates from high school and goes right into the workforce.

The value question around higher ed is, OK, the opportunity cost. Am I losing something when I go to college instead of going right into the workforce? There's lots of data and lots of discussion around that.

The regents' responsibility is to make sure that when you do come to ASU or NAU or the U of A, that those degrees really do provide extra value, but not only just with regard to the economics of your life, but in addition to just improving your life. Now, the truth is most of our students are majoring in things that have economic value. The Number 1 degree that we produce in our institutions is a business degree, followed closely by engineers and healthcare specialists.

MARK BRODIE: Does the economic impact of the universities change when their enrollment numbers change, specifically when the enrollment is down a little bit?

CHAD SAMPSON: Yes, it does have an impact. But again, we have sophisticated modeling. They are prepared for it, and they are ready for that. The biggest issue we have is making sure that the state continues to find value in our institutions and continues to fund our institutions.

As I mentioned, Arizona's public universities have grown significantly in enrollment over the last decade or more, decade and a half, while at the same time the state has, for various reasons, continued to divest in four-year degrees.

So we are very focused on doing two things: making sure that the universities are financially stable and strong, which they are, and making sure that we do everything we can to convince policymakers and lawmakers that the impact that these students have when they come out with degrees is a benefit and results in a tremendous ROI for Arizona.

MARK BRODIE: Looking back, I mean, you mentioned that the state has basically added two more full public universities with the enrollment growth. Looking back now with sort of where we are, did the universities grow — was there maybe too much growth at some point?

CHAD SAMPSON: No, I don't think so. The Arizona Board of Regents for 30 years have been very access-focused, and that's not the same in other states. And so I don't think that they have grown too much. We've seen this coming. We didn't wake up this morning and realize that there were less high school students graduating, so we've had time to prepare and right-size the institutions.

MARK BRODIE: How have the universities tried to prepare? What sorts of things have they been doing over the last number of years to get themselves ready for this day?

CHAD SAMPSON: A lot of it, your big expenses are your people and your facilities. So a lot of them are preparing their facilities — what needs to be mothballed, what's old. We have universities that are older than the state, and so those buildings take a lot of maintenance. When is it time to take them offline?

The second is making sure that your faculty, which are the core and the heart of any institution, that they're the size that you need to be able to teach the number of students that are coming in.

MARK BRODIE: All right, that is Chad Sampson, executive director with the Arizona Board of Regents. Chad, thanks so much. Appreciate it.

CHAD SAMPSON: It's our pleasure, thank you.