What the Southern Hemisphere can tell us about the upcoming flu and COVID season

State health officials say they’ve confirmed nearly a thousand COVID-19 cases in the last week.

It has been almost a year since Arizona had a weekly count that high. But officials say they’re not concerned about that, since it’s lower than average for this time of year.

At the same time, lots of Arizonans are starting to think about getting flu and COVID-19 shots for the year. For more about all of this, The Show spoke to Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association.

Full conversation

MARK BRODIE: Will, good morning.

WILL HUMBLE: Morning, Mark.

MARK BRODIE: So, do you share state health officials’ lack of concern about the increased number of COVID cases here?

WILL HUMBLE: Yeah, I mean, the thing is that it’s been an increase in the number of COVID cases that they’ve been able to identify, mostly through healthcare facilities and stuff. But it’s starting at a really low baseline, so you can see a big increase percent-wise and really not have it be of big significance in terms of public health.

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MARK BRODIE: OK. Does this tell us anything about what the next several months are going to look like, or is it more instructive to look elsewhere?

WILL HUMBLE: Yeah. No, it doesn’t tell us much about the — like there’s three big respiratory viruses: RSV, influenza and COVID-19. And so, like what you saw about the blip in COVID, that doesn’t tell us anything.

But what we can do — and if you ask me, “Are we going to have a bad influenza respiratory season?” I don’t know, but the clues are really in the Southern Hemisphere. Because they’re finishing — we’re finishing our summer, they’re finishing their winter and their respiratory virus season. So what we do in public health is this time of year look like, “Hey, what’s happening in New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, Chile, those kinds of places?”

And luckily, at least so far, there haven’t been any new wildcard viruses or — sometimes there can be a change in the antigen strain, like the strain of influenza late in their winter, which is late in our summer. That hasn’t happened this year. So that’s a good thing. That tends to weigh on the side of having more of a normal, typical influenza season rather than a really bad one. Same with RSV and COVID.

MARK BRODIE: Does that indicate then that the strains of influenza that are in the vaccine are a good match for what people are seeing sort of in the world?

WILL HUMBLE: Yeah, good question. And yes, so far, all the matches are good. So the vaccines that are in the pharmacies or coming to your local pharmacy in the next week or two, those are all geared for the exact viruses that were circulating in the Southern Hemisphere during their winter.

So that’s the best we can do. You can’t be a mind reader with the viruses, but you can use surveillance for the Southern Hemisphere to help inform your preparation. And so far, so good. So it’s a good match. But something could come at the very end of their winter — like now — and pose a problem for us when we get to our winter. But so far, so good.

MARK BRODIE: If that were to happen, are we just kind of out of luck here?

WILL HUMBLE: Not out of luck, because the vaccines will still provide protection. And no matter what the strain is, the vaccines will prevent you from ending up in the hospital or healthcare or having a really bad outcome.

So the vaccines always help. The question is like, are they rock solid or not? And that depends on, does a wildcard strain come out of the Southern Hemisphere or evolve here in our winter? That can happen, too.

Bret Jaspers/KJZZ

MARK BRODIE: So, do you have a good sense of when is sort of the ideal time to be getting — let’s assume people want to get a flu and COVID shot together, one trip, just get it all out of the way. Like, I feel like we hear sort of sometimes it’s good to get it early, maybe sometimes it’s good to wait until a little bit to give you more protection through later in the winter. Like, when should we be looking to do this?

WILL HUMBLE: Yeah. So these vaccines provide you really good protection for about six to seven months — let’s just say six. So if you get vaccinated Sept. 1, like around now, like if you add six months to that, you’re going to have protection into the early spring here in Arizona.

But if you wait until — I usually wait till like Oct. 15 to Oct. 30. And then I’m pretty much guaranteed that I’ll have protection — it takes about two weeks for the antibodies to kick in and stuff — so you’re going to be protected for sure by the Thanksgiving holiday, and it will give you that extra protection into like March. So we get our vaccines in mid-October. But it’s not a mistake to get it now. Not a bad thing.

MARK BRODIE: It seems like there’s really no wrong answer here. Like as long as you’re going to get it, get it now, get it next month. But it seems like your message is get it now, get it in a month, but get it.

WILL HUMBLE: And yeah, and don’t wait till like the holidays. Don’t wait till like New Year’s and stuff. Get it ahead of time, and then you’re ahead of the curve.

MARK BRODIE: In terms of RSV, which I think is for a lot of people sort of the third wheel of these trio of respiratory illnesses, do we have a sense of what this coming — these next few months might look like in that world?

WILL HUMBLE: No, not really. But we do have advantages today that we didn’t have like three or four years ago, because there’s a good, safe and effective vaccine for RSV now. It’s focused and recommended for senior seniors, so like people 75 and up, because they’re at the highest risk for having a kind of pneumonia from an RSV infection. And also little babies, newborns.

And so the recommendation is for moms to get — upcoming moms to get the vaccine if their kids are going to be born between October and in the respiratory virus season, at the beginning of the third trimester get the RSV vaccine. Then when baby comes, baby’s protected from RSV from the mom’s antibodies.

So those are two groups we think about with RSV: infants and then senior seniors.

MARK BRODIE: And for folks sort of in the middle of those age ranges, like if they get RSV, is it fair to say they might not even know that’s what they have?

WILL HUMBLE: Yeah, they might not know that’s what they have, but they also might spread it to someone like a grandparent or something like that. So yeah, it’s just like a really runny nose that you don’t really know what it is, but you’re still functioning at work, you don’t spike a big fever. Those are kind of the symptoms for someone in their 40s, for example, with RSV.

MARK BRODIE: What are vaccination rates looking like for flu and COVID in Arizona? I mean, for a lot of illnesses, it seems like they’re not super high. Is that the case also for flu and COVID?

WILL HUMBLE: Yeah, but it’s a bit of a black box, because it’s not something that we have good reporting data on. I mean, you’d have to look at the sales of volume that’s happening in CVS and Walgreens and the pharmacies and doctors’ offices and how much inventory’s been used. So I can’t really answer the question because like we don’t have good data on what — there’s survey data and stuff.

MARK BRODIE: Self-reporting type stuff?

WILL HUMBLE: Self-reporting. And typically, it’s the same every year. The people who are most motivated to get the influenza, especially the influenza vaccine — which doesn’t carry the baggage, the political baggage that COVID had. Seniors are still like, “Yeah, I want it.” And so people over 60 tend to be the biggest enthusiasts about the influenza vaccine, and for good reason.

MARK BRODIE: Yeah, because it’s particularly dangerous if they get it. Interesting. All right, that is Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association. Will, thank you as always.

WILL HUMBLE: Right. Take care. Thanks.