Latinos split on whether American Dream is attainable today. That could shape our election

Generations of Latino immigrants have come to the United States in search of the American Dream. But today, that dream can seem more elusive than ever.

And a new report from the Pew Research Center shows Latinos are split on whether or not the American Dream is attainable today.

But they’re also more optimistic about their children's future. It all says a lot about one of the nation’s fastest growing demographics, and it could change the way our election shape up this fall.

Here to talk about it all is Mike Madrid, a longtime political consultant, co-host of the Latino Vote podcast and author of "The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy."

Full conversation

LAUREN GILGER: Good morning, Mike. Thanks for coming back on The Show.

MIKE MADRID: Yeah, thanks for having me. Always love to be with you guys.

LAUREN GILGER: Glad to have you. So this Pew data shows — I’m going to give some stats here: One in five Latinos say they have achieved the American dream; 33% say they are on their way to achieving it. But they also say that nearly 20% say the American dream is just out of reach; 27% say it doesn’t even exist.

Are you surprised by these numbers?

MIKE MADRID: They’re a little bit troubling because they have shown that Latinos have sort of backed off of this really rosy, optimistic view of the country. And the times, the unsettled times, frankly, there’s a lot of terror striking the heart of the community right now.

I am — I am always amazed at the resilience, however, of Latinos and their optimistic belief about this country and where it’s going. One of the most beautiful parts of this finding is — is that it is the immigrant themselves, that the — the people who have naturalized or come here seeking opportunity that remain the most optimistic about the idea of America, even though we’re in these really troubled times.

LAUREN GILGER: Right, I loved that as well. The report basically highlights that U.S.-born Latinos are more likely than immigrants to say that the American dream has become harder to attain. What does this reflect to you? Like, you talk a lot in your work, Mike, about basically the Latino demographic being a story of assimilation.

Phil Desmangles, Simon & Schuster

MIKE MADRID: Yeah, the generational differences are the most telling about how political attitudes are developed, and this — this poll really shows that perfectly. As you just mentioned accurately, it is — the longer Latinos are here, the more they have been kind of shifting right, the more they have lose — lost their ethnic anchoring with Latino culture.

So there’s a sort of misunderstanding that it is like Latinos that bring this very conservative, socially conservative or right-wing position with them. It’s actually the exact opposite. It is those that are here the longest that start to look like the overall electorate in America, and that is a traditional story of assimilation.

LAUREN GILGER: Yeah, yeah. But those people who have been here the longest are now also the most skeptical of this idea of the American dream. I mean, talk about what this might say about politics or what Latinos, this kind of essential voting demographic in the country now, might be interested in or concerned about heading into November.

MIKE MADRID: So overwhelmingly, this is an issue of affordability and cost of living. The economy has always, for decades, been the single largest driver of political decision-making for Latinos, and it’s gotten even more acute during these times of extraordinary economic anxiety.

What I argued in my book and what continues to play out is that as Latinos become more second, third, and even now a fourth generation, the politics of Latino — Latino politics is changing because Latino voters themselves are changing. And it becomes less — a focus much less focused on issues like immigration and naturalization, and far, far more focused on issues like affordability and economic opportunity.

LAUREN GILGER: Yeah, yeah. What the American Dream thing means to Latinos, it means even more so than most of the American population, what you said there about financial stability.

So let me ask you about this other part, Mike, because I think this is fascinating, and maybe speaks to that idea of resiliency and optimism that you mentioned at the beginning. That Latinos also here show that they’re more optimistic about essentially intergenerational progress. Like, more than half of Latinos in this Pew study said their children’s standard of living will be better than their own. Even more said that their standard of living is better than that of their parents.

MIKE MADRID: And this is really the beauty and I think the hope for the American project continuing forward, that belief that their children’s lives will be better than their own is something that is inherently American, or at least has been up until recent generations.

The group that no longer believes this are white Americans. And that, I think, explains our politics, where you have an older, whiter America that has frankly been the, you know, received the largesse of one of the most prosperous generations in American history, has the most negative views of the country and its future.

But here now emerges this younger, poorer, browner group that has the widest, most optimistic view of who we are. And that again, that idea, that that aspirational, “My children can have it better than I have,” is what creates the sacrifice and opportunity and commitment to this country that’s sorely needed at this moment.

LAUREN GILGER: That’s really interesting. So let me ask you lastly, Mike, about about what this might look like.

If someone, a politician, you know, someone running right now wants to tap in from the Democratic side or the Republican side to that younger, more optimistic Latino generation, what should they talk about? Like, what might work with that kind of population?

MIKE MADRID: Boy, that’s such a great question because that’s really going to define who — which party is the majority party in this next generation, certainly in the next decade.

The first thing is it does have to be aspirational. It does have to believe in this commitment of where we’re going. I think too often there’s this negativity that is dividing us, that says America’s best days are behind it, and you can’t trust the institutions anymore broadly.

What I think the moment, the vacuum that’s been created is this need to have candidates speaking to where we’re going with specific — specific policy solutions, but recognizing and tapping into this very emotional sense that America’s greatest days are ahead of it if we all build it together, and that opportunity still remains with us, and we need to do everything we can to accentuate it.

LAUREN GILGER: What party do you think, Mike, is best fit to try to tap into that, to deliver that message right now?

MIKE MADRID: Well, my whole book was predicated on the idea that both are failing at this moment. They’re consumed by culture wars rather than economic aspiration. At the moment, like I said, this shift back from Republicans towards Democrats in the polling is much more indicative of a rejection of the Republican Party than an affirmation of the Democratic Party. But that stands in contrast to the exact same scenario in reverse two years ago.

So Latinos are the largest swing vote, but they’re not being compelled aspirationally to either party. They’re being negatively pushed by whichever party is in power that de-prioritizes these economic issues and incessantly focuses on these cultural issues that Latinos really could not care much about.

LAUREN GILGER: Yeah, sounds like a big opportunity.

Mike Madrid, longtime political consultant, co-host of The Latino Vote podcast. The book is “The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy.” Mike, thank you as always. Really appreciate it.

MIKE MADRID: Always great to be with you. Thank you.